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Austin Riley’s OPS+ Plummeted to 80: Is the Braves’ Core Already Breaking Down?

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Atlanta Braves logo on gradient background — Created by the Sports On Tap desk | Source : Sports On Tap (team logos property of their respective owners)

The Atlanta Braves’ 2026 season is done, finished, kaput. After fighting hard to win the NL East with 94 regular season wins, they crashed out of the postseason, losing NLDS Game 4 to the Dodgers. This isn’t just another loss, either; it’s the latest in a tough trend for a team that’s supposed to be a contender.

Another Playoff Exit Stings, Hard

Look, 2026 was supposed to be a bounce-back year for the Braves, and in a lot of ways, it was! Under first-year manager Walt Weiss, they racked up 18 more regular season wins than their disappointing, injury-riddled 2025 campaign, which was the last one with longtime manager Brian Snitker. They were healthier, they were winning, and they took the NL East. But then the playoffs hit, and it was the same old story. Since winning the World Series in 2021, this team has only won *one* postseason series, which was this year’s Wild Card Series. Their playoff record since that ’21 championship? A brutal 5-12. All that hard work just led to another sour ending, and you gotta wonder when the tide turns for them in October.

Are the Stars Fading Already?

Here’s the real gut punch, and it’s something Alex Anthopoulos, the lead decision-maker, has to be staring at right now: Are some of their core guys, the ones they locked up with those big long-term extensions for stability, already experiencing a premature decline? That’s the question that’s gotta be keeping fans up at night. Third baseman Austin Riley is a huge concern. Remember 2021-2023? He was a beast, putting up three top-10 finishes in NL MVP voting, with an OPS+ of 135 during those age 24-26 seasons. That means his park-adjusted OPS was 35% better than league average! Incredible! But since then? It’s been a steady, alarming drop. His OPS+ went to 115 in 2024, then 105 in 2025, and this past season it *cratered* to a dismal 80. That’s 20% *worse* than league average. Ouch. The underlying stats, like his increasing strikeout, chase, and whiff rates, tell you he wasn’t just unlucky; he earned those struggles. And he’s signed through 2032! That’s a huge question mark for the future. Second baseman Ozzie Albies is also showing a similar pattern; his OPS+ has dropped every season since 2023, and he’s got a $7 million team option for next season. When your core starts trending down, that’s a problem.

So, what now for the Braves? They’re still supposedly in “contending mode,” with key players under contract and ownership ready to spend to win. But the future is hazy, especially with ongoing CBA negotiations for 2027. Despite all that, the expectation is they’ll “go for it” again next season. But man, those questions about their stars? They’re not going away.

This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.

Originally reported by CBS Sports.

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