The Chargers, a team once thought to be a serious threat, are a complete trainwreck at 0-4, and our Emerald City just put another nail in Justin Herbert’s “elite” coffin this past Sunday. This isn’t just about a bad start for them. It’s time to yank back the “top 10 quarterback” label that’s been slapped on Herbert for way too long.
The Chargers’ Collapse and Harbaugh’s Cold Hard Truth
Let’s be real, the Chargers are spiraling, and their latest gut-punch came right here in Seattle. Head Coach Jim Harbaugh, who not long ago was gushing about Herbert and even predicted he’d be the greatest QB in NFL history, just last week said Herbert “needs to be better.” You gotta wonder if that was tough love trying to spark something, or if the reality of an 0-3 team before our game finally hit him. Either way, it hasn’t worked. They’re 0-4, and Herbert’s play is a huge reason why. Sure, he’s talented. He even put up “video game numbers” and the most passing yards through three seasons in NFL history. But what does that matter when you’ve never won a playoff game? His resume over the past five seasons is frankly average, closer to Trevor Lawrence than guys like Matthew Stafford, Dak Prescott, or Joe Burrow. That’s a gut punch, right?
The Efficiency Metric Herbert Can’t Outrun
Forget the highlight reels for a second. We need to look at the cold, hard facts, and the best way to do that is EPA per dropback. This isn’t just about total yards; it’s the ultimate measure of how much a quarterback actually helps his team score, looking at everything from moving the chains to avoiding costly mistakes, all while considering the game situation. Herbert deserved a ton of praise early on, absolutely, but his production has dipped, and the numbers don’t lie. After ranking 7th in EPA per dropback in 2020 and 4th in 2021, he’s fallen off a cliff. He ranked 13th in 2022, 11th in 2023, 12th in 2024, 21st in 2025, and a dismal 19th this year. Think about that for a second. He peaked in his first two seasons, and he’s been outside the top 10 in this crucial efficiency rating every single year since. He’s one of only two qualified quarterbacks to rank outside the top 10 in EPA per dropback in each of the past five seasons, with the other being Geno Smith. That’s a tough stat to swallow for anyone trying to call him “elite.”
So what does this all mean for Herbert? His team is drowning at 0-4, and his personal stats, when you dig into the real efficiency metrics, show a clear downward trend. That “elite” talk? It’s officially dead. The question now isn’t if he’s a top 10 quarterback, but how far he’s actually fallen.
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
Originally reported by CBS Sports.
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