The Toronto Raptors are officially all in, bringing back Kawhi Leonard for his age-35 season, not just trading away first-round picks but handing him a monster extension north of $60 million a year. It’s a seismic move for a franchise that’s been stuck in purgatory since he first left in 2019, bouncing between okay and flat-out bad, and failing to get out of the first round for six straight seasons. This isn’t just a signing, it’s a bet, and it’s a bet on Kawhi’s past glory being his future norm.
Paying for a Past Peak? Toronto’s Massive Kawhi Bet
Let’s be real, Toronto is banking hard on Leonard’s career-high 27.9 points per game over 65 appearances last season. They’re telling themselves that’s the standard now, not a one-off. While there’s been a trend of older players maintaining elite levels, dropping $60 million a year on a 35-year-old with a notorious injury history feels like a high-wire act without a net. He hasn’t played 60 games in back-to-back seasons since 2017, which makes that 65-game mark last year look more like an outlier than a new baseline. This whole deal could blow up in their face if his body decides it’s had enough.
Size, D, and an ‘Inspiring Young Group’ With Kawhi?
Despite the huge risk, this Raptors team is going to be fascinating to watch. They’re built like a brick wall, with 12 players clocking in between six-foot-six and seven feet tall, including four of their five projected starters. We’re talking about a squad that’s big, loves to defend, and will create matchup nightmares all over the court. The Mavericks got a taste of this last season when Toronto just blitzed them. Now you throw Kawhi into that mix, joining an already inspiring young core like Collin Murray-Boyles, who had an impressive rookie year, RJ Barrett, who can score in bunches, and Scottie Barnes, who’s just a nightmare for opposing teams. Kawhi Leonard is the engine that makes this entire unit run, and his presence could transform them.
The Eastern Conference Grind and That 46.5 Win Line
Last season, the Raptors finished 46-36 and still got bounced in the Eastern Conference first round. That tells you everything you need to know about the rising tide in the East. For this upcoming season, their over/under is set at 46.5 wins, with the Finals odds at +2200. The absolute biggest question mark isn’t about talent, it’s about Leonard’s availability. Betting on him to stay healthy at 35, especially given his history, feels foolish. Even with their talented young guns, it’s hard to see them blowing past last year’s win total in such a stacked conference. The prediction? Under 46.5 wins feels like the smart play.
This season, for Toronto, is all about whether that massive gamble on Leonard’s age-35 body pays off. Can he stay on the court enough to truly make this oversized, defensive-minded squad a real problem in the East? Or will his injury history pull the rug out from under their ambitious plans? We’re talking Finals aspirations for +2200, but hitting that 46.5 win mark is already looking like a tall order. Get ready for a wild ride, because this team is going to be appointment viewing, for better or for worse.
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
Originally reported by Mavs Moneyball.
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