Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford, the reigning NFL MVP, just hasn’t looked like himself through the first four games this season, and with a monster Monday Night Football matchup against the Buffalo Bills looming tonight, head coach Sean McVay has gotta be desperate for his star to snap back into that elite form. The problem? According to respected analyst Nate Tice, Stafford’s entire season has been too “weird” to expect anything close to what we saw last year.
The “Weird” Play That Has Everyone Talking
Tice, who’s blown up in the NFL media space with his “Football 301” podcast and countless guest spots, is seriously one of the best out there at dissecting quarterback play. So when he says Stafford’s been “weird,” you gotta listen up. He pointed out that Stafford has already scrambled more times in these four games of 2026 than he did in all of 2025. That’s a huge red flag right there. Tice really dug into it, noting that against the Eagles’ Cover-2 and Cover-6 schemes, the Rams’ offense wasn’t hitting those usual “digs” and “in-breakers” that Stafford used to master. Instead, everything was outside and vertical. Tice was quick to point out that’s just not how you beat those coverages, saying, “Stafford’s just not really throwing over the middle.”
The Numbers Paint a Grim Picture
And man, the stats back up Tice’s observations in a big way. Stafford has thrown six interceptions to only six touchdowns in L.A.’s first four games. That’s a tough look, especially with two of those starts coming without number one receiver Puka Nacua. His passer rating has plummeted from an incredible 109.2 last season all the way down to just 80.5 so far this year. Tice hammered home his point about the lack of middle-of-the-field throws with hard numbers: only 6.5% of Stafford’s throws this season are to the intermediate middle, which is 10-22 yards downfield and between the numbers. That’s one of the lowest marks in the entire NFL this season and a massive drop from his previous rates, like 11.5% last year and around 14% when he first landed in Los Angeles in 2021. He’s also targeting his receivers way less often, at about 48% this season compared to nearly 61.5% last year and 73% in 2024. Yeah, Nacua’s absence definitely hurts, and the offensive line hasn’t been perfect, plus the Rams use a lot of tight ends. But still, these numbers are screaming for attention.
Tonight’s game against the Buffalo Bills isn’t just another game for the Rams. It’s a prime-time test, a chance for Stafford to prove Tice wrong and show everyone that the MVP is still in there. McVay needs him to find that magic fast, or this “weird” season could get a whole lot weirder.
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
Originally reported by Turf Show Times.
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