Thursday night is set for a Pac-12 clash in San Marcos, Texas, with both the Colorado State Rams and Texas State Bobcats desperate to climb out of a 2-3 hole. These teams are sitting at 0-1 in conference play and tied for sixth, but it’s the betting lines that are really wild right now, especially with SportsLine’s model throwing a curveball for the 70.5 point over/under. This first-time matchup is already generating serious buzz for what it means for these teams trying to turn their seasons around.
The Struggle Is Real
Both the Rams and the Bobcats are fighting to get back in the win column, and their records tell a tough story. Colorado State is on a brutal three-game losing streak, including a crushing 56-26 loss to Oregon State in Week 6. They’re also 0-1 on the road, which doesn’t exactly inspire confidence heading into UFCU Stadium. Texas State, while also 2-3 overall and 0-1 in the Pac-12, has shown a bit more life lately, winning two of their last three games. Their Week 6 loss was a tight 31-29 battle at San Diego State, and they’ve got a solid 2-1 home record this season.
Quarterbacks on the Spot
The quarterback situation for Colorado State is definitely something to watch. Sophomore Hauss Hejny has been sidelined with a hamstring injury for the last couple of games and is still questionable for tonight. If he can’t go, it’ll be up to redshirt freshman K’saan Farrar to lead the offense. In his four games this season, Farrar has completed 61.2% of his passes for 649 yards, throwing three touchdowns against two interceptions. On the other side, Texas State’s offense is run by sophomore Brad Jackson. In his five starts, Jackson has been efficient, completing 66.7% of his passes for an impressive 1,226 yards and 13 touchdowns, with five interceptions. His ability to move the ball will be key for the Bobcats at home.
The Model’s Bold Call
This is where it gets spicy. The oddsmakers have Texas State as hefty 14-point favorites, with the over/under set sky-high at 70.5 points. Why so high? Well, if you’ve been watching, the “Over” has hit in all five of Colorado State’s games this season, and in four of Texas State’s five matchups. Both these teams have been putting up points and giving them up. But here’s the kicker: SportsLine’s projection model, after simulating this game 10,000 times, is going hard on the “Under” 70.5 points. The model projects the teams to combine for only 63 points, and it’s hitting the Under in a shocking 65% of simulations, giving it “all the value.” Kickoff is at 8 p.m. ET, and you know everyone will be watching to see if these high-scoring teams can defy the data or if the model’s surprise prediction holds true.
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
Originally reported by CBS Sports.
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