The Los Angeles Dodgers are staring down an almost impossible mountain, now trailing the Milwaukee Brewers 3-0 in the NLCS. Let’s be real, folks, the numbers are brutal. They’re the 43rd team in MLB postseason history to be in this hole in a best-of-7 series, and a staggering 32 of the previous 42 instances ended in a sweep. The Brewers could clinch the pennant as early as Thursday night right there at Dodger Stadium.
History Is Screaming That This Series Is Over
Catcher Will Smith, who actually drove in both of the Dodgers’ runs in Game 3, one of only three run-scoring hits for the Dodgers all postseason, put it simply: “We’ve just got to be better as an offense, put together better at-bats with runners in scoring position. Just get back to ourselves, keep fighting, and win one game at a time. That’s how we’re gonna get back in this.” Talk about a tall order when you’re facing a historical brick wall.
What makes this even crazier? The Dodgers *swept* these very same Brewers just last year. Now, they’re on the verge of being swept themselves. This is only the eighth time a team that got swept faced the same squad the very next year in the postseason. Out of the previous seven, only *one* team managed to win the rematch: the 1923 Yankees beating the Giants after getting swept by them in the 1922 World Series. Milwaukee is absolutely owning the narrative this year.
The Rare Glimmers of Hope (And What They Actually Mean)
So, if a sweep doesn’t happen, what are the next best odds? Not great, Bob. Out of those 42 teams that trailed 3-0, 32 got swept. That leaves 10. Six of those ten managed to win just one game before ultimately falling in five. Think about it:
- 1910 World Series: Cubs won Game 4, lost Game 5 to Philadelphia A’s
- 1937 World Series: Giants won Game 4, lost Game 5 to Yankees
- 1970 World Series: Reds won Game 4, lost Game 5 to Orioles
- 2016 ALCS: Blue Jays won Game 4, lost Game 5 to Cleveland
- 2017 NLCS: Cubs won Game 4, lost Game 5 to Dodgers (remember Kiké Hernández’s three dingers?)
- 2024 World Series: Yankees won Game 4, lost Game 5 to Dodgers (that comeback from down 5-0!)
That’s 38 out of 42 teams losing by Game 5. Right fielder Kyle Tucker might say, “I believe in this group, the staff, the clubhouse and guys in here. I think if there’s a team to do it, it’s this team. It’s not going to come easy, obviously.” But historically, this NLCS is basically done, and it’s overwhelmingly likely to end in Los Angeles on Thursday or Friday. The historical path shows their season is practically over.
Then you have the true unicorns, the two teams that won two games before waving goodbye, and those happened in back-to-back years:
- 1998 NLCS: Braves won Games 4 and 5 at home, lost Game 6 in San Diego
- 1999 NLCS: Mets won Games 4-5 at home (the famous walk-off “grand slam single”), lost Game 6 in Atlanta
Those are the “save face” series, the ones where you avoid the ultimate embarrassment of a complete sweep. For the Dodgers, that’s what’s left.
Game 4 on Thursday night at Dodger Stadium is their shot to just win one, to avoid the broom. The Brewers are looking to clinch the pennant. Can they even start to write a new, improbable chapter? The historical odds say absolutely not, but hey, you gotta try, right?
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
Originally reported by True Blue LA.
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