USC is sitting at a sweet 6-1 right now, with the College Football Playoff picture still totally there for the taking. But don’t let that record fool you, folks, because if the Trojans want to make that CFP push, they absolutely *cannot* afford a slip-up in Madison this Saturday against Wisconsin. Their season hangs in the balance, even after big wins against Penn State and Washington.
The Trojans’ Razor-Thin CFP Path
Yeah, USC is 6-1. They’ve got some good wins on the board, like taking down Penn State and Washington. But they also dropped a game at home to Oregon, and if you’re talking CFP, that’s a tough one to swallow. Realistically, for them to get into the playoffs, they need to close out the season 5-1 from here on out. That’s a razor-thin margin, especially with the schedule staring them down. After this huge game in Madison, USC has Ohio State, then they head to Indiana, face Maryland, and then close it all out in the Rose Bowl against UCLA. Every single game is massive, and a loss to Wisconsin could blow the whole thing up. Historically, USC has owned the series against the Badgers, sitting at 7-1 all-time, highlighted by a classic 42-37 win way back in the 1963 Rose Bowl. But this isn’t 1963, and Wisconsin isn’t just going to roll over.
Badger D vs. Trojan Air Attack: A Mismatch?
What really takes down the Trojans? Passing accuracy, or rather, a lack of it, and giving up too much of it. In that Oregon loss, Dante Moore and Dylan Raiola combined to complete a wild 77% of their passes. Think about that for a second. Louisiana’s Lunch Winfield also gave the Trojans fits in their 49-30 Ragin’ Cajun loss, and Penn State’s Rocco Becht hit 66% of his throws when they kept it close two weeks ago. When Jayden Maiava gets his midrange passing game humming, it’s devastating. But things have slowed down a bit. Against Oregon, he completed just 55% of his throws.
That’s a HUGE problem, because Wisconsin’s defense has been absolutely terrific. Even in a loss, their run defense was the only one that managed to keep UCLA’s ground game under wraps. And their secondary? Penn State and Michigan State both completed under 48% of their passes against them. While Wisconsin is allowing teams to complete 57% of their passes overall, their ability to lock down when it matters could really expose USC’s recent passing struggles.
Colton Joseph Holds The Key, But Can He Deliver?
On the flip side, Wisconsin is still in the hunt for big things themselves. Their only losses have come to Notre Dame and UCLA. Beat USC, and suddenly, they’re right there in the thick of the hunt too. Their schedule after this isn’t even that bad, with road games against Iowa and then hosting Rutgers.
The biggest question for the Badgers, though, is their own passing game. Quarterback Colton Joseph is a good all-around player, but he’s completed just 15 of his last 36 throws over the last two games. Yikes. For all their improvements, Wisconsin is still 133rd in the nation in first downs. They absolutely need to control the offensive narrative. The conditions in Madison will be perfect, and the Wisconsin defense will keep this game close, no doubt. But Joseph has to be accurate, and he needs to be excellent on the move. The problem is, Wisconsin doesn’t have a pass rush to really get to Maiava, and they don’t take the ball away much. The Badgers will come close, the source predicts, but they probably won’t be able to close out enough drives with touchdowns to pull off the win.
This Saturday, October 24, 2026, at 7:30 PM ET on NBC, is going to be a battle in Camp Randall Stadium. Both teams have everything to play for, and the winner keeps their big-time hopes alive.
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
Originally reported by Yahoo Sports.
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