Grant Holmes’ starts for the Atlanta Braves this season are playing out like a horror movie where you already know the ending, but you’re screaming at the screen anyway. His latest outing on Friday against Baltimore, where he let up three runs on six hits in a 7-6 win, just hammered home what everyone watching the Braves already feels in their gut.
The Short-Circuiting Starts
Honestly, on the surface, Holmes hasn’t been completely blown up. He’s only given up more than three runs once all season, five on May 1 at Colorado. And get this: he’s been tagged for exactly two or three runs in more than half his appearances, 13 out of 20! Sounds kinda decent, right? But here’s the kicker, and this is where the story takes a dark turn: he’s only pitched six innings a measly three times all year. Think about that for a second. Twice in his first three starts, then *one time* in his last sixteen! Are you kidding me? His last four starts have been exactly five innings, and before that, he didn’t even make it through five innings in four straight appearances. This isn’t just a trend; it’s a full-blown pattern that’s draining that bullpen, and he’s absolutely part of the problem.
The Deceptive Numbers and Deep Trouble
So, we’ve got a guy who almost always gets you five innings but rarely more, and often less. What does that mean for the stats? Holmes is rocking a 3.79 ERA, which looks pretty solid at 89 ERA-. That’s like, “Hey, not too shabby!” But then you peel back the onion, and oh boy, it gets ugly. His FIP, that’s Field Independent Pitching, is a brutal 4.82 (116 FIP-), and his xFIP, which tries to get at what he *should* be doing, is 4.63 (109 xFIP-). Both of those are squarely below average marks. Basically, he’s been getting away with it, largely thanks to some seriously strong defense behind him. This dude is relying on magic and leather to keep those runs down, not consistently dominant stuff, especially after the first nine batters where his FIP is a much better 2.98 and xFIP is 3.92. After that, it’s a struggle.
Atlanta’s Trade Deadline Desperation
The fact that the Braves have *had* to lean on Holmes this hard for four months straight? That’s the real gut punch. Their rotation is depleted, man. If Spencer Schwellenbach and A.J. Smith-Shawver were healthy, Holmes wouldn’t be getting the ball every fifth or sixth day like this. A rash of injuries has just amplified this reliance on him. And let’s be real, nobody following the Braves feels one bit more confident about Holmes starting a playoff game now than they did at the beginning of the season. NO ONE. But here’s the kicker, the absolute mind bender: as things stand, he *could* be starting a playoff game! His ERA is third best among their starters, behind only Chris Sale and Martín Pérez. How crazy is that? His underlying numbers are way worse, but his ERA is “good” enough to put him in that spot. This situation is screaming for help. Atlanta needs to add one, maybe even two, starters before the August 3 Trade Deadline if they want to make any real noise in the stretch run. Holmes has served a role, sure, and he’ll probably keep serving one. But relying on five inning starts that mask deeper issues? That’s not a recipe for success when it counts.
The Braves are in a tough spot, and Holmes’ short, high wire acts are a symptom of a much larger problem. They’ve got until the August 3 Trade Deadline to figure out how to bolster that rotation. Will they find the arm or two they desperately need, or will they roll the dice with their current crew, hoping Holmes can keep “getting away with it” in the games that matter most? This deadline is going to be wild for them.
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
Originally reported by Yahoo Sports.
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