The 2026 NFL season is still a few weeks out, but training camps are already kicking into gear, and if you are prepping your fantasy football draft board, listen up: SportsLine’s proven computer model just simulated the entire season 10,000 times, and it is flagging one specific player as a massive bust, going way too high.
This Model’s Receipts Speak For Themselves
This isn’t some fly-by-night prediction, either. This model has a history of calling it straight. Last year, it straight-up nailed Commanders receiver Terry McLaurin’s down season. He was going top-50 in drafts, and the model saw right through it. What happened? McLaurin went from nearly 1,100 receiving yards and a career-high 13 touchdown catches to career lows of just 582 receiving yards and only 3 scores. Sure, injuries played a part, but his per-game averages were down across the board. Anyone who dodged McLaurin avoided a major headache, plain and simple.
And that’s not all. This same model identified A.J. Brown as a sleeper back in 2020. It called Jonathan Taylor’s monstrous 2021 season, and it even predicted C.J. Stroud would take a step back in 2024. Talk about hitting the mark, right? This thing also called out past sleepers like Derrick Henry in 2019, Christian McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara in 2018, and Davante Adams in 2017. So when it speaks, you better listen.
Malik Nabers: A Red Flag at Pick 35
So, who is the model waving a huge red flag at for 2026? It is New York Giants receiver Malik Nabers. The guy is currently coming off draft boards around pick No. 35. That’s like, second or early third round territory, right? But SportsLine’s simulation doesn’t even have him cracking the top-15 receivers. Think about that: a guy going in the top 35 overall, and the model sees 14+ other receivers as better options. We are talking players like DeVonta Smith, Nico Collins, and Zay Flowers all projected above him.
Why the skepticism? There are real reasons. Nabers tore his ACL last season, and then had a follow-up procedure just this past spring. That’s a serious recovery timeline, and he is not a lock to be ready at the start of the season. Plus, the Giants’ offense, under offensive coordinator Matt Nagy, is expected to heavily lean on the run game. More running means fewer targets for a receiver who is already battling back from a major injury. It sounds like a recipe for fantasy disappointment if you ask me. Drafting him at pick 35 could be a seriously risky move.
The 2026 NFL season kicks off on September 9, and your fantasy draft is coming up fast. If you are looking to avoid a major bust and snag some serious value, paying attention to these warnings from SportsLine’s model is a no-brainer. Don’t get caught sleeping on this one.
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
Originally reported by CBS Sports.
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