No. 3 Georgia might be a double-digit favorite heading into Saturday’s rivalry showdown with Florida, but ESPN’s Bill Connelly is already sounding the alarm, putting the Bulldogs squarely on upset alert in his Week 9 preview. Georgia walks in as a 12.5-point favorite, with Connelly’s SP+ seeing a 16.5-point win for the Bulldogs and ESPN’s FPI giving them a 13-point edge. Yet, Connelly sees a real path for the Gators to make things seriously uncomfortable.
Baugh’s Brutality and a Shaky Defense
Connelly’s upset script for Florida kicks off with a critical detail: Georgia’s tackling. He wrote, “The Dawgs’ tackling has been pretty mediocre by their standards,” adding that Florida’s path “starts with Jadan Baugh racking up yards after contact.” This isn’t just some random observation, it’s a direct hit on one of Florida’s biggest strengths. Baugh isn’t just a part of the Gators’ rushing attack, he’s the centerpiece. His ability to churn out extra yards even after first contact could be absolutely massive against a Georgia defense that Connelly believes has been less reliable in tackling than usual. You see a weakness, you hit it hard. That’s the game plan here.
Turnovers and the QB Question Mark
Beyond Baugh’s physical running, turnovers are going to be just as vital for the Gators. Georgia has fumbled the ball six times in their last two games, which is a big flag for any defense. Connelly straight up said that Florida’s defense probably needs to create takeaways. Why? Because the Gators’ defense ranks 97th nationally in points allowed per drive, so they’re going to need those extra possessions and short fields to compensate. On top of that, Florida has a quarterback situation brewing. Tramell Jones Jr. just led the Gators to a 27-24 victory at Texas while Aaron Philo was sidelined. However, Philo is reportedly set to start on Saturday. Connelly believes Florida needs to put up enough points to push this game into a range where just a couple of turnovers or big plays could completely flip the result. He wrote, “If they can get their point total into the mid-20s, they’ll give themselves an upset chance.”
Georgia, for their part, has been superior in most statistical categories and has definitely rediscovered their explosiveness. They’re second nationally in creating gains of at least 20 yards on 10.5% of their offensive snaps. That’s serious firepower. But Florida has already shown this season that they can pull off the unexpected, with wins over Ole Miss and Texas. Knocking off No. 3 Georgia on Saturday? That would easily be their biggest statement yet. Can they hit the mid-20s and make history? We’re about to find out.
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
Originally reported by Yahoo Sports.
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