November is here, and my gut is screaming for an under bet that’s gonna make some folks scratch their heads. No. 10 Texas is rolling into No. 19 Missouri, and I’m eyeing that 44.5 total like a hawk, even after Arch Manning just dropped three touchdowns on Mississippi State in a comfortable 31-3 win last week. Missouri also put up 34 points on Arkansas in a rivalry win, so yeah, an under might sound wild. But trust me, the numbers tell a different story.
Why You Should Trust the Defenses Over the Highlight Reels
Look, I get it. Manning can turn a decent defensive possession into a very annoying highlight in one throw. Neither offense needs to be consistently great to torch an under. But here’s the kicker: both of those big wins had a ton of defensive help that you just can’t count on to repeat. Texas’s 31-3 victory over Mississippi State included Maraad Watson taking a fumble 61 yards for a touchdown, and the Longhorns only managed 280 yards of offense the entire game. Missouri’s 34-10 win at Arkansas? Even more assistance, with four takeaways turned into 24 points. Both defenses *created* those chances, sure, but I just wouldn’t count on that same number of easy points when these two powerhouses go head-to-head.
I’m trusting the defenses more than the offenses here, straight up. Bill Connelly’s SP+ rankings back that up, putting Texas at No. 7 and Missouri at No. 11 nationally for defense. The offenses haven’t been operating at that elite level. Against FBS opponents, Texas is only producing 2.36 points per drive, and Missouri clocks in at 2.15 in our tracking. I fully expect both teams to have trouble sustaining drives against these stout defenses. If they have to go the length of the field every time, I’m betting on stalled possessions and plenty of field goals. Our projection has Texas winning 23-19, making for a total of 42. That 44.5 line is sitting there at -108 at bet365, and that 2.5-point gap is huge, especially with Manning’s big-play ability. Take the under.
Betting on a Rebounding Mississippi State
Next up, we’ve got the Vanderbilt Commodores taking on the Mississippi State Bulldogs, with Mississippi State favored by 3 points and an over/under of 48.5. Now, before you call me crazy for laying points with the Bulldogs, hear me out. Vanderbilt is in rough shape, with Kamario Taylor out for the season and AJ Swann leaving the Texas game injured. Mississippi State has dropped four straight after starting a clean 4-0, so yeah, it feels like an odd time to back them.
But I like Mississippi State -3 regardless of who starts for them. Their quarterback situation is a real problem, absolutely, and I’m not just assuming it gets fixed by Saturday. However, our current ratings have the Commodores at No. 76 on offense and No. 71 on defense. That means Mississippi State gets an opponent with its *own* serious scoring problems and a much less imposing defense than the one they just faced. I don’t need the Bulldogs to suddenly look like their unstoppable September offense to win by more than a field goal here. This is a chance for them to get back on track against a struggling opponent.
These early Week 10 plays are all about finding value where others might just see chaos. It’s November, folks, and every bet counts. Let’s get these wins and keep the momentum rolling as we dive deeper into the college football madness!
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
Originally reported by Yahoo Sports.
Leave a Reply