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0.31 Expected Goals: The Shocking Stat That Proves Manchester United Is Still Deeply Flawed

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Manchester City, playing down a man after Phil Foden received a red card just 23 minutes into the game, still managed to snag a 1-0 derby victory against Manchester United at Old Trafford. This wasn’t some lucky break; it was a brutal, stark reminder, delivered by Erling Haaland’s 60th-minute goal, that despite all their efforts to appear a normal, top-tier side over the past decade, United remains a deeply flawed team. Seriously, what happened?!

Up a Man, Still Nothing

Everything was lining up for United. City was down a man for almost 40 minutes before Haaland scored, and United had completely seized control of the game. They were racking up seven shots, with Marcus Rashford even getting incredibly close with a free kick right before halftime. City, meanwhile, looked toothless after the red card, managing only a single shot that registered a pathetic 0.03 expected goals. You had to feel the momentum shift, the hope building, the belief that this was *their* moment to finally show up against their bitter rivals while holding such a massive advantage.

Haaland Strikes, Flaws Exposed by the Numbers

But then, inevitably, it happened. Erling Haaland found the back of the net. And man, was that goal controversial! It took a VAR check that dragged on forever, so long that even the commentators were joking about singer-songwriter Noel Gallagher celebrating Haaland’s strike well after the offside flag had gone up. But Gallagher was justified, because the referees eventually confirmed a deflection on Semenyo’s pass, making any offside questions moot. That goal wasn’t just a score; it was a punch to the gut. The cautious optimism from last season’s third-place finish and a quiet summer of business? Yeah, it just got a serious reality check with this 1-0 loss to City. Foden’s red card livened up a dull game, but the period between that decision and Haaland’s goal highlighted United’s deeper issues. Carrick’s side had started as the aggressors, taking three shots while City had just one. And just before Haaland scored, United had a whopping ten shots compared to City’s meager two. Sounds good, right? Wrong. Those ten attempts generated a paltry 0.31 expected goals. Think about that: ten shots, and barely any real threat. That number screams that the Red Devils had zero answers for City’s defensive shape. City’s coach, Enzo Maresca, essentially dared United to do something with all that possession and control, and he bet correctly that they simply couldn’t. It was a masterclass in exposing a team that entered the weekend as one of the league’s better attacking sides, yet looked utterly lost when it mattered most.

So, United is left with just one win in four games to kick off their Premier League season, and Sunday’s performance laid bare their limits for everyone to see. It’s not hard to believe that another rough, deeply frustrating season is waiting right around the corner for the Red Devils. Fans are left wondering how a team with such a numerical advantage could crumble so completely. What are they going to do to turn this around?

This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.

Originally reported by CBS Sports.

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