ESPN’s Bill Barnwell put the Jacksonville Jaguars on blast, predicting they’re one of the NFL teams most likely to decline hard in the upcoming 2026 season. When you see the numbers he’s pulling out, it’s tough to argue with the dude. After a solid 13-4 run in Year 1 under head coach Liam Coen back in 2025, Barnwell is seriously questioning if they can even come close to repeating that kind of success.
The Numbers Don’t Lie, Folks
Barnwell points to a glaring stat: Jacksonville went 6-2 in one-score games last season. That’s a huge red flag because that kind of record is super volatile and usually isn’t a sign of future success. You get lucky a few times, sure, but sustaining that? Nah, not likely. On top of that, the Jaguars were top-five in both turnover margin and fumble recovery rate in 2025. These are metrics that are notoriously difficult to keep up year after year. It feels like they were riding a wave of good fortune, and eventually, that wave breaks.
A Winning Streak Built on Borrowed Time?
Let’s talk about that eight-game winning streak they had to close out 2025 and clinch the AFC South title. Barnwell really dug into that, and it’s not looking good. He found that over those final nine games, the Jaguars faced the opposing starter for a complete game only twice. Cam Ward got a full start for the Titans, and Bo Nix for the Broncos, but for “six of the other seven games [they] were almost entirely against second-, third- or even fourth-string options.” Are you kidding me? That’s not exactly beating the best of the best. Plus, they were one of the healthier teams in football last year. Combine that with a lot of road games on their schedule for 2026, and the statistical odds are stacked against them winning as many games this time around.
Can Coen Turn This Ship Around?
Now, it’s not all doom and gloom. There are a few bright spots Barnwell highlighted that could be reasons for optimism. Having a second season in the same offensive and defensive systems is huge for continuity, letting them build on what they started rather than learning new schemes. This summer, they’ve reportedly seen Trevor Lawrence and Brian Thomas Jr.’s connection grow, the secondary is playing very well, and Travon Walker is apparently fully healthy. Maybe Coen can take this article from Barnwell, tape it up in the locker room, and use it as pure fuel for the fire. Proving the doubters wrong? That’s what motivates a lot of teams.
The 2026 season is gonna be a massive test for Jacksonville to see if their 2025 run was legit or just a statistical anomaly. All eyes are going to be on Coen and the squad to see if they can defy the stats and Barnwell’s skepticism.
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
Originally reported by Yahoo Sports.
Leave a Reply