It’s Friday, October 2, 2026, and manager Dave Roberts is already talking about momentum. Seriously, that first pitch on Saturday afternoon at Dodger Stadium for Game 1 of the NLDS feels like it’s going to set the tone for *everything*. Roberts himself knows it’s huge, telling reporters that “to hold serve at home I think is important” and “to take on a team that’s coming out of a series with momentum and then to kind of gain the momentum by winning Game 1, very important.” He’s right, even if it’s not a short three-game series, Game 1 is still critical for setting that vibe.
Game 1: The Numbers Don’t Lie
Look, the Dodgers are rolling into their 29th postseason series during a record-tying 14 consecutive playoff seasons. Roberts is on his 23rd postseason series in his 11th year at the helm. This isn’t their first rodeo. But the stats on Game 1 are wild. Since 2013, the Dodgers have played in 28 total postseason series (counting best-of-3 wild cards, best-of-5 Division Series, and best-of-7 Championship and World Series). Guess what? The team that won Game 1 in those series ended up winning the entire series 21 times. That’s a staggering 75 percent! Yeah, winning Game 1 doesn’t *guarantee* anything, and Roberts’ Dodgers are actually 15-7 (.682) when facing elimination, which is way better than the rest of MLB’s 80-100 (.444) record in those spots since 2016. But still, getting that leg up from the start? It’s just a no-brainer.
Alex Vesia, who’s been with LA for all six of his postseasons, nailed it. He said, “Setting the tone, getting the win in that first game is very important. I think one thing we do very special here is we play today, we’re not worried about tomorrow or what we did yesterday.” That one-game-at-a-time mentality, especially when Game 1 carries this kind of weight, makes a real difference. Across MLB, in best-of-five or longer series, the Game 1 winner takes the Division Series 80.8% of the time, the Championship Series 73.1% of the time, and the World Series 69.2% of the time. The Dodgers’ numbers are right there too: 76.9% in the DS, 75% in the CS, and 60% in the WS. Sure, they’ve stumbled a few times after winning Game 1, like in the 2017 World Series or the 2025 World Series, but the trend is undeniable.
The Stakes For This NLDS
This specific NLDS starts Saturday against a Braves team that just went through a grueling three-game wild card series and is planning a bullpen game. That’s a huge advantage right out of the gate for the Dodgers. If they can snag Game 1, and maybe even Game 2, that momentum could totally crush the Braves’ pitching staff and send ripples through the entire Division Series. As Roberts put it, “The advantage for us is we have an opportunity to not let their pitching staff come up for air.” Winning today is the only thing that matters, because that’s how you really put the pressure on. All eyes are on Game 1 Saturday afternoon: it’s not just a game, it’s a statement.
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
Originally reported by True Blue LA.
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