Aaron Nola has been absolutely electric for the Phillies in his last five starts, posting a 2.51 ERA that has been a revelation for the club. This recent surge is exactly what the contending Phillies needed, especially after they didn’t land another starting pitcher at the August 3 trade deadline, despite the expectation they would.
Nola’s Five-Start Fireworks Show
Look, the guy’s 33 years old and he’s been through it. Nola, who’s in the third year of a massive $172 million deal through 2030, had a grim 5.49 ERA over 43 starts since the beginning of the 2025 season. It looked like that contract was a wreck from the club standpoint, plain and simple. But then, *boom*! These last five starts have been a completely different story. We’re talking 28 2/3 innings, only 8 runs, and a ridiculous 34 strikeouts against just 10 walks. He even dropped his 2026 season ERA from 5.82 all the way down to 5.12 thanks to this run. The dude spun a gem against the Marlins on Wednesday, throwing seven frames of one-run ball with eight Ks and no walks. That’s a Game Score of 71, his highest all season! He told MLB.com it’s all about “how [his pitches] feel, and winning the counts and not walking guys… Gotta keep trying to keep the ball down and in the ballpark.” Plus, his fastball velocity is up a bit, and his strikeout rate jumped from 23.6% to 28.8% in this stretch, all without losing control. That’s a significant jump, and it’s been huge for keeping the Phillies in the NL East playoff picture.
Is This Too Good to Be True?
Alright, before you go printing “Nola Cy Young” shirts, we gotta talk about the elephant in the room. While Nola’s been shutting down hitters and racking up Ks, there’s a big flashing red light on the stat sheet: his FIP, or fielding-independent pitching. Over these same five starts where his ERA is a sparkling 2.51, his FIP sits at a concerning 4.51. That’s a full two runs higher, folks! What does that mean? It means his “deserved” ERA, after you take out the effects of luck and team defense, is a whole lot worse than his actual ERA. This isn’t just some nitpicky stat; it’s a real concern for what happens next. Regression toward that higher FIP figure is absolutely possible. So, as much as the Phillies and us fans want to celebrate this incredible turnaround, we gotta keep an eye on those underlying numbers. Are these results sustainable, or are we riding a hot streak that’s about to cool down hard?
The Phillies front office, led by Dave Dombrowski, chose to stick with Nola instead of bringing in another arm at the deadline. Right now, they’re certainly taking these recent results. But with that FIP hanging out there, we’ve gotta wonder how long this magic can last. For the Phillies to stay in that NL East playoff picture, Nola needs to defy the FIP and keep dealing, because any slip could be brutal.
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
Originally reported by CBS Sports.
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