Week 1 is always wild, right? Teams change so much in the offseason, you barely recognize them sometimes. But looking at the numbers from last season? One thing is crystal clear for the Packers: they are gonna be chucking it deep, and it looks like the Vikings are in for a nightmare.
The Numbers Don’t Lie on Deep Passes
No joke, the Packers were the 5th best team in the entire league last year when it came to deep passing, talking throws 20+ yards downfield. Now, guess who was the 28th best defense at stopping those same deep balls? Yep, the Vikings. That’s a glaring mismatch staring us down right there, a huge advantage before the game even starts. And get this: the Vikes were actually pretty good against short passing, ranking 6th best, and intermediate passing, where they were 3rd best. So, what’s the obvious play? If the Vikings lock up the short stuff, Green Bay just needs to go long, baby, go long!
The Love-Watson Connection Is Electric
But it’s not just about the overall team numbers. This is seriously all about the connection between Jordan Love and Christian Watson. Last season, Love was a completely different QB when Watson was on the field. He averaged a ridiculous 10.2 air yards per attempt with Watson out there, but that number dipped significantly to 7.8 when Watson was off the field. You can’t ignore that difference, it’s massive! Love threw five deep touchdowns all year, and three of them were directly to Watson. One other deep score came with Watson on the field too. That leaves only ONE deep TD thrown by Love all year without Watson out there. Seriously, only one. And Watson? From Week 8 on last season, he averaged a staggering 17.6 air yards per target, which was the second most among qualifying receivers during that span. He also led the entire league with nine receptions on deep passes in that stretch. This connection is not just good, it’s absolutely electric and game-changing.
When They Blitz, Love Goes Deep
And let’s talk about facing the blitz, because Brian Flores *loves* to bring the heat. You’d think that would rattle a young quarterback, right? Make him panic, maybe throw a quick check-down. Nope, not Love. Jordan Love actually had an EPA per Play of +0.30 against the blitz last season. That’s tied for the best in the entire league with Matt Stafford! For reference, Drake Maye had the best overall EPA per Play last season at +0.25, showing Love was straight up balling against pressure. He’s not just dumping it off either; his time to throw when blitzed was 2.78 seconds. His Deep Throw percentage when blitzed was 13.2%, which was an impressive 5th in the league. The dude just doesn’t panic under pressure. He drifts away from pressure, throws off his back foot, and he’s still hitting those bombs downfield. So yeah, football can seem complicated, but for the Packers, at least against the blitz, it looks pretty simple: if Flores sends the blitz, Love just needs to chuck it deep to Watson. It’s a proven formula.
So, when the Packers face the Vikings this week, you know exactly what to look for. This deep ball attack, especially targeting Christian Watson, is the absolute key to their victory. Get ready for some serious fireworks, because those numbers are screaming for some massive plays downfield! It’s going to be a wild one.
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
Originally reported by Yahoo Sports.
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