The 2026 NFL season kicks off Monday night with a truly wild projection: the SportsLine model has the Chiefs and Broncos combining for just 40 points in their Week 1 clash. That’s a bold call for a primetime game, especially with Kansas City looking to bounce back from a rough year.
Chiefs and Broncos Kick Off With Big Questions
Kansas City is coming off a rare non-playoff year, finishing 2025 with a disappointing 6-11 record. That’s a huge drop-off for a franchise that won the AFC West for nine consecutive seasons before that, and even made the Super Bowl in five of six seasons prior to 2025. You know they’re hungry to prove last year was a fluke. On the other side, Denver is riding high as the defending AFC West champions. They were a dominant 14-3 last season, grabbing their first division title since 2015. The Broncos even made it all the way to the AFC Championship Game, where they dropped a tough 10-7 decision to the New England Patriots. This Monday Night Football matchup, kicking off at 8:15 p.m. ET from Arrowhead Stadium, pits two teams with very different recent trajectories. The Chiefs are 2.5-point favorites, with the over/under set at 43.5 points via SportsLine consensus.
The Model’s Sticking Its Neck Out For a Low-Scoring Affair
When a model up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception, and on a 53-37 run since 2024, makes a call, you listen. And after simulating Chiefs vs. Broncos 10,000 times, SportsLine is going hard on the Under 43.5 total combined points. Why such a low number for a Monday Night Football game? It all comes down to defense. Both teams were seriously stingy last season. Denver boasted one of the league’s best units, holding opponents to just 18.3 points per game, which was the third-least in the NFL. Kansas City was right there too, allowing 19.3 points, ranking them No. 6. The model even projects incredibly low offensive output from the quarterbacks. Broncos QB Bo Nix is projected for under 200 yards passing and just one touchdown. And for Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes, the model sees him throwing for only 180 yards and one score. That’s almost unbelievable for Mahomes, but it speaks to the defensive strength on both sides, with a projected 40 total points.
This Week 1 opener is going to set a huge tone for the AFC West. Can the Chiefs shake off last year’s slump, or will the Broncos solidify their spot as division leaders? It’s going to be a fascinating, potentially low-scoring, start to the 2026 NFL season.
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
Originally reported by CBS Sports.
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