Paul Skenes, the guy who started 2026 with a career ERA under 2.00 and looked like an NL Cy Young lock after a scorching 1.09 ERA over eight starts, just isn’t the same dude right now. His fastball, once a lock for triple digits, hasn’t even hit 98 MPH in his last four outings. That’s a brutal contrast to the Skenes who threw at least ten pitches at that speed in each of his first 52 MLB starts. This sudden change has hammered the 24-year-old ace, reflected in a rough 5.18 ERA over his last 14 games, dragging an improved Pirates team to a dismal 3-11 record in those starts.
The Numbers Don’t Lie: What’s Really Happening
Remember Opening Day? Skenes had a dud, not even making it out of the first inning. But then he locked in, posting that insane 1.09 ERA over his next eight starts, cementing himself as the NL Cy Young favorite. But since then? It’s like watching a different pitcher. He’s rocking a 5.18 ERA over his last 14 starts, including a brutal 6.25 ERA in July alone. No wonder the Pirates are struggling when he’s on the mound, going just 3-11 in those games.
Now, it’s not all bad news. His 2.91 FIP, or fielding independent pitching, looks way better than his 3.90 ERA. Plus, his strikeout rate is actually higher than last season, with FIP nearly two full runs lower than his ERA over those last 14 starts. That means some positive regression to the mean is probably headed his way, right? You’d think so, but that doesn’t tell the full story.
Where Did The Heat Go? The Startling Velocity Drop
The real gut punch is the velocity. Codify Baseball reports Skenes hasn’t chucked a single pitch 98 MPH or faster in his last four starts, and only five times in his last eight. This is the guy who used to casually throw at least ten pitches at 98 MPH or more in *each* of his first 52 MLB starts. Think about that: it’s been 18 starts in 2026 since he last did that.
Statcast data backs it up hard. His average fastball velocity, which was in the 99th percentile in 2024 and 95th in 2025, has plummeted to the 84th percentile this season. In 2025, Skenes recorded 31 strikeouts on pitches of at least 99 MPH. This year? Just one, against Pete Crow-Armstrong back in May. The dude is still missing bats, with his strikeout rate hovering near 12 per nine innings in July, but he’s just not lasting long in games, and when he’s been hit, he’s been hit *hard*. Maybe he’s learning to pitch without that insane velocity, which might be a good thing long-term, but it’s a tough adjustment to watch.
This isn’t just a patch of bad luck anymore. Paul Skenes is a different pitcher right now, and the velocity drop is undeniable. Can he regain that lost heat, or will he become a different kind of ace? The Pirates need him to figure it out fast if they want to turn around these early season trends. Every start is gonna be a massive watch party, you know it.
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
Originally reported by The Sporting News.
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