Auburn squeaked past Baylor 17-16 on Saturday, but you know what’s wild? ESPN’s FPI immediately dropped them five spots, from No. 22 to No. 27, even with the W. Talk about a wake-up call after Week 1!
The Ugly Win and Byrum Brown’s Rough Start
Man, that 17-16 win over Baylor was a nail-biter, but it definitely left some questions, didn’t it? The offense looked rough, no sugarcoating it. Byrum Brown tossed *three* interceptions, which is just brutal. You can’t make those kinds of mistakes and expect to compete week in and week out. On the flip side, the defense showed up big, playing with that same fire we saw through most of 2025. They held it down, but carrying the whole team is a heavy lift. Yeah, they’re 1-0 and closer to ending that five-year losing season streak, but this win felt… shaky. It feels like they just escaped, not dominated, and the FPI noticed.
FPI Delivers a Harsh Reality Check for Golesh
The real kicker? ESPN’s FPI rankings took Auburn from No. 22 straight down to No. 27, like the system saw that win and said, “Nah, not impressed.” Now, the FPI gives them only a 68% shot at hitting six wins this season, with a projected 6.4 wins and 5.6 losses overall. After just Week 2, FPI’s calling a 6-6 record for Alex Golesh’s first year, which is a big bummer when you’re trying to build something and snap a losing streak. And get this: they’re now projected to lose to Florida, after FPI had them with a 51.6% chance to win that game entering the season! Even their chances against Mississippi State took a dive, from 67.5% down to a coin flip at 50.6%. That’s a massive shift in just one week.
A Brutal Road Ahead to Six Wins
Looking at the FPI breakdown for the rest of the schedule, it’s not getting any easier. They’re looking good for Southern Miss at 87.7%, pushing them to 2-0. But then it’s Florida, a projected loss, and suddenly they’re 2-1. Vanderbilt looks like a projected win at 65.4%, but then it’s a gauntlet: Tennessee (31.2%), Georgia (13.7%), LSU (20.2%), and Ole Miss (29.7%) are all projected losses, potentially putting them at 3-5 before Arkansas (79.5%) brings a breath of fresh air. It’s going to come down to those coin-flip games, like Mississippi State at 50.6%, which could be the difference between hitting that six-win mark or another losing season. They’re eyeing Samford for win number six with a 99% chance, sitting at 6-5. Then Alabama? A paltry 15.7% chance. That 6-6 record FPI is talking about looks like a grind to get to.
So, what’s the deal now? They absolutely have to clean up that offense, big time. That five-year losing streak is on the line, and if they don’t fix those turnover issues, that 6-6 FPI projection might just be generous. Every game is a fight if they want to get past that streak.
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
Originally reported by Yahoo Sports.
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