The Auburn Tigers are officially on bye week, and man, do they need it. After dropping a 24-14 game at Tennessee this past Saturday, they’re sitting at 3-2 overall and a rough 1-2 in the SEC, needing a total reset before they hit the final seven games of their season. What’s wild is that despite the loss to the Volunteers, their ESPN Football Power Index ranking didn’t budge an inch.
The FPI Stagnation and a Brutal Road Ahead
Seriously, it’s wild. Auburn stayed locked in at No. 24 in the ESPN FPI rankings, a spot they’ve apparently called home for three straight weeks now. Neither beating Vanderbilt nor losing to Tennessee moved the needle one bit. Meanwhile, Tennessee climbed to No. 10 after that win, showing just how much the rest of the league is shifting. Auburn has a brutal stretch ahead, too, with ten teams ranked ahead of them, including four future opponents: No. 2 Georgia, No. 6 Alabama, No. 8 LSU, and No. 22 Ole Miss. Their current strength of schedule is rated No. 18, but the remaining schedule? That thing is rated No. 4 nationally, the third toughest in the SEC behind only LSU and Texas A&M. This isn’t just tough, it’s a gauntlet.
Bowl Dreams Hang by a Thread, Upset Required
So, what about the postseason? According to the FPI, Auburn is still on track for a bowl game with a 75.3% chance at getting to six wins. They’re favored to beat Arkansas and Samford, which would get them to five wins. But that sixth win? That’s gonna require an upset. They aren’t favored in any of their remaining games against ranked opponents: they play at Georgia, host LSU, then go on the road for Ole Miss, Mississippi State, and Alabama. The FPI projects their final record at 6.3 wins and 5.7 losses. It’s not exactly a confidence-inspiring forecast for a team trying to prove they belong.
The Georgia Problem: History Says No Way
Now, let’s talk about the next game, because this one is HUGE. The Tigers are set to face the Georgia Bulldogs on October 17th, and the ESPN Matchup Predictor gives Auburn a measly 11.3% chance of victory. You read that right. 11.3 PERCENT. Auburn hasn’t beaten Georgia since the 2017 regular season, and they lost the SEC Championship rematch that year. They’ve dropped nine consecutive games to the Bulldogs in this rivalry. Georgia is no slouch either, heading into a game at Alabama this week with a 52.6% chance of victory there. It’s a gut check moment, folks, and breaking that losing streak against Georgia isn’t just about bragging rights; it’s about proving they can hang with the big dogs and keep those bowl hopes from completely imploding. This bye week better be productive, because that Georgia game is coming fast.
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
Originally reported by Yahoo Sports.
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