Colorado is staring down its toughest challenge yet, with the No. 10 Texas Tech Red Raiders rolling into Boulder this Saturday evening. After back-to-back losses, including dropping their Big 12 opener to Baylor, most folks are already writing off the Buffs. And honestly? The analytics community is straight up worried about what they’ve seen from Colorado lately, especially after those last two performances.
The Only Hope: Colorado’s Disruptive Defense
Here’s where it gets interesting, even if it’s a long shot. ESPN’s Bill Connelly, a respected name in the analytics game, actually listed Texas Tech as one of his top-15 teams on upset alert. Now, that doesn’t mean he’s confident Colorado can pull it off, but he sees a sliver of possibility. Connelly points to Colorado’s defense, which has become seriously aggressive and disruptive. He thinks they can absolutely challenge a Tech offense that, despite boasting strong efficiency numbers (15th in success rate), doesn’t make a ton of big plays, turns the ball over too much, and is currently dealing with O-line injuries. That’s the “intriguing” half of the matchup he’s talking about. If there’s any path to making this game close, it runs directly through Colorado’s D.
The Numbers Don’t Lie: Buffs Have a Mountain to Climb
But let’s be real, even Connelly’s “upset alert” came with a massive caveat. “Only one half of the matchup is intriguing, however,” he said, “there’s little reason to think the Buffaloes will actually score… It will take serious Boulder magic for this to become interesting.” Yeah, you read that right. The experts are saying Colorado’s offense is barely a blip on the radar. Diving deeper into the raw analytics just makes it worse. SP+ projects the Red Raiders to win by a whopping 21 points. ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) isn’t much kinder, predicting a 16.1-point victory for Texas Tech. Purely based on the numbers, Colorado has no business being anywhere near a team like the Red Raiders.
So yeah, the numbers look brutal for Colorado. But if they’re gonna make this interesting, it’s all on that defense. They gotta show up and truly exploit those Tech O-line injuries and turnover issues. This Saturday night in Boulder? It’s gonna take some serious magic, just like Connelly said. Can the Buffs defense really make No. 10 Texas Tech sweat, or will the analytics experts be proven right about the score?
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
Originally reported by Yahoo Sports.
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