The Boston Red Sox are reportedly ready to dive into the free-agent market this offseason, with Bleacher Report’s Tim Kelly predicting they’ll sign right-hander Casey Mize to a one-year, $14 million contract. This isn’t just about adding an arm, it’s about potentially replacing Sonny Gray, who’s out testing free agency after declining his $30 million mutual option. Gray was a rock for Boston’s pitching staff, but he was clearly annoyed after being pulled early in Game 2 of the Wild Card Series. Now, the Red Sox are looking at a suitable landing spot for a pitcher who had a truly wild 2026 campaign.
Mize’s Split Personality on the Mound
Casey Mize, a 2025 All-Star, saw his 2026 season go sideways after a mid-year trade. He absolutely flashed brilliance with the Tigers, posting a stellar 2.70 ERA across 16 starts. That’s the kind of performance that makes you remember why he was the first overall pick back in 2018. But then came the move to the San Diego Padres, and things just spiraled. Mize finished his Padres tenure with a brutal 7.46 ERA over 10 outings. That’s a massive difference, and it has to be a major red flag for any team looking to sign him. Which Mize shows up next year? That’s the $14 million question.
High Risk, High Reward for the Red Sox
It’s not just the on-field performance that has to make Boston pause. Mize has a significant injury history. He underwent Tommy John Surgery in 2022, and his 2026 season was cut short, limiting him to just 26 starts due to a right adductor strain and a right ankle sprain. He’s also never managed to throw more than 150.1 innings in a single season. Tim Kelly from Bleacher Report notes that this one-year commitment is Boston’s shot to replace Sonny Gray, hoping the Tigers version of Mize shows up on Opening Day, not the Padres’ disaster. If Mize can stay healthy and pitch anywhere near his Tigers form, he could be an absolute steal, potentially becoming a qualifying-offer candidate next year. He could even slot in as one of the best No. 4 starters in the Majors, pitching behind Garrett Crochet, Payton Tolle, and Ranger Suárez. But that’s a lot of “ifs” for $14 million, and the Red Sox are clearly making a high-stakes play here.
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
Originally reported by The Sporting News.
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