Austin Mock just dropped his 2026 NFL season projection model for the AFC, and the Buffalo Bills are slotted for the second-most wins in the conference, clocking in at 10.7. Yeah, you heard that right, *second*. The Baltimore Ravens actually edged them out for the top spot with 10.9 victories. But hold up, here’s where it gets wild: Mock’s model says the Bills have the highest percentage chance to make the postseason in the entire AFC at a whopping 73.4%, slightly nudging past the Ravens’ 73.0%.
The AFC Playoff Picture Is A Jumbled Mess
This whole projection screams parity, doesn’t it? Mock’s model has nine teams hitting at least nine wins, which feels like the new normal for this conference. While Buffalo might not have the most projected wins, their top-tier playoff odds mean the model *really* likes their chances to be playing meaningful football late in the season. On the Super Bowl front, the Bills are sitting at 6.6%, again, second only to Baltimore’s 7.4%. It’s a tight race at the top, and these numbers mean every single snap is gonna be huge. Think about it: a 0.2-win difference between first and second, and less than a percentage point separating their Super Bowl chances. That’s a high-stakes, nail-biter of a season just waiting to happen.
AFC East Is Gonna Be A Thunderdome
Now, let’s talk about the AFC East, because Mock’s got some spicy takes. He’s calling it razor-thin for the 2026 campaign. Remember his 2025 prediction that the Patriots, with the easiest schedule, could dethrone the Bills? He nailed that prescient call. For 2026, the Patriots are projected for 10.3 wins themselves, with a 68.2% chance to make the playoffs and 6.2% Super Bowl odds. That’s breathing right down Buffalo’s neck. Mock even pointed out that Buffalo’s defense didn’t even crack the Top 10 in his model. And about New England, he’s basically saying, “Don’t sleep on them.” He thinks it “wouldn’t be surprising if the Patriots were a better team this year compared to last, but their record doesn’t reflect it” and sees them making a deep January run. Meanwhile, the Dolphins and Jets? The model projects them as “far away from contending.” Yikes.
So, what does this all mean for the upcoming 2026 season? Mock hasn’t even dropped the NFC projections yet, but the AFC looks like it’s going to be an absolute dogfight. With the Patriots breathing down their necks and the defense outside the Top 10, the Bills are gonna have to fight tooth and nail just to hold onto their projected spot. You better believe fans across the league will be glued to every single snap, because if these projections are right, the AFC is going to deliver some absolutely bonkers football.
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
Originally reported by Buffalo Rumblings.
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