BYU is chasing its fourth straight win tonight, but don’t let the shiny 3-0 record fool you, because Montana State rolls into the Marriott Center as the Big Sky favorites, and they are looking to expose some real cracks in the Cougs’ undefeated start. The Cougars are currently ranked No. 23 in the AP Poll and are sitting at 26th in KenPom, but the Bobcat squad, despite their 1-1 record, is no pushover. This Thursday night matchup at 7pm MT on ESPN+ is more than just another game, it is a test for BYU’s early season form.
BYU’s Scorching Offense, But What About the Boards?
The Cougs have kicked off their season absolutely on fire offensively, dropping 300 points across three dominant wins against Ohio State (94-83), Omaha (108-67), and Queens (98-82). And get this: they have shot *exactly* 46% from three in every single one of those games. That kind of consistency from deep is eye-popping, no doubt. They are scoring at will, looking like an offensive juggernaut.
But here is where it gets real: the last game against Queens, even though BYU won 98-82, wasn’t a clinic. The team “didn’t look fully dialed in” and, more concerning, “had defensive lulls.” Even worse, they got outrebounded by a smaller Queens team. Rebounding is a massive question mark for this squad, and if they couldn’t control the glass against a small Queens team, what is going to happen when a Big Sky contender comes calling? The offensive numbers are sweet, but you cannot hide defensive lapses and poor rebounding forever.
Montana State: Big Sky Favorites With A Chip On Their Shoulder
Montana State might be 1-1, but this team was picked to win the Big Sky in *both* the coaches and media preseason polls for a reason. Head Coach Matt Logie is in his fourth season, coming off his best year where they went 18-14 (12-6 in the Big Sky) and finished second in the league. They bring back 10 players from that squad and added three transfers in a five-man class, so continuity is a major strength for them. Their only loss was a tough 84-74 road game at Colorado State, where they were missing their best player. They bounced back with an 83-70 home win against Long Beach State.
And speaking of their best player, watch out for guard Jed Miller. He was a unanimous First Team All-Big Sky pick last season, a preseason all-conference selection this year, and he leads the Bobcats in basically everything: points (14.9), rebounds (5.7), assists (2.9), steals (1.6), and minutes (34.5). He just put up 14 points, hitting 4-8 from three, in the Long Beach State win. He is the focal point, without a doubt.
Then you have Jeremiah Davis, who just snagged Big Sky Player of the Week after dropping 17 points and 10 rebounds against Long Beach State. This 6-foot-4, 185-pound fifth-year guard made the Big Sky All-Defensive team last year, averaging 9.1 points and 1.4 steals, shooting 40% from three. He is a physical, disruptive force who can absolutely make life tough on BYU’s guards. And do not forget Christian King, an Honorable Mention All-Big Sky forward who transferred from Washington. The 6-foot-8 shooter averaged 12.6 points last season, hitting 36% from deep. He just scored 12 points, including 2-4 from three, against Long Beach State, so BYU’s bigs are going to have to stretch their defense out to the perimeter.
The Stakes: BYU’s Untested Defense Versus a Big Sky Powerhouse
The KenPom prediction has BYU winning 90-72, giving them a 94% win probability with a point spread of BYU -23.5 and a point total of 163.5. On paper, it looks like a comfortable BYU victory. But predictions do not account for what we saw against Queens: a lack of focus and defensive lapses. If BYU does not assert itself on the glass, especially after being outrebounded by a smaller team, this game could get way tighter than anyone expects.
This is a real gut check for the Cougars, especially on defense and rebounding. They need to show they can lock in and control the boards, or Jed Miller and the rest of the Bobcats are going to make them pay. Tune in tonight, because we are about to find out if BYU’s undefeated start is built on solid ground, or if those defensive cracks are ready to split wide open.
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
Originally reported by Yahoo Sports.
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