Chris ‘The Bear’ Fallica, the FOX Sports wagering expert, is back for College Football Week 7, and while Week 6 didn’t exactly go his way with an 0-3 record, he is still sitting positive on the season at a respectable 16-13. A new week means new opportunities, and he is diving headfirst into a loaded slate with some big-time calls, especially for that Notre Dame vs. BYU showdown.
Notre Dame @ BYU: A Shorthanded Offense vs. Elite Defense
This is the game everyone’s talking about, and Fallica has a strong feeling. He just can’t see the shorthanded BYU offense doing much against what he calls the best defense they will face by far. Think back to last season: BYU struggled immensely against Texas Tech, another excellent defense, putting up only 14 points and 3.7 YPP over two games, coughing up seven turnovers. Now, they are without LJ Martin, which is a massive blow to their attack. Fallica’s pick here is BYU Under 17.5.
It’s a bold call, but the numbers might back him up. Big 12 teams are only 5-7 against other P4 conferences this season, and those five wins came against teams that are a combined 5-14 against P4 opponents themselves. You also have to consider the history: The only other time a ranked BYU team hosted a top-three opponent was that legendary 1990 upset win over defending national champion Miami. But since Michigan State upset Ohio State in 2015, double-digit favorites in regular-season top-10 matchups have won 19 straight games. Plus, the last four, and six of the last seven, have covered that big number, and ten of the last 14 have gone under. The Irish are the first road team in this exact spot since Alabama’s 29-0 win at LSU back in 2018. The stakes are sky-high, and Fallica is clearly leaning into the defensive battle.
The Rest of ‘The Bear’s’ Week 7 Bets
Beyond the big one, Fallica has a few other picks that could make or break your Saturday. In the Kansas @ Kansas St. rivalry, K-State’s defense hasn’t been great this year, but the Kansas offense has been just as bad. After a blowout loss last week, Fallica expects Collin Klein to have the Wildcats absolutely ready. Klein owned this rivalry as a player and will try to bring that same mindset as a coach. His pick: Kansas State -4.5.
Then there is Georgia Tech @ Virginia Tech. The Hokies surprisingly lost at Cal last week, but Fallica believes getting back home should be enough to boost them to a win over Georgia Tech. Sure, the Jackets pulled off an upset over Duke last week, but they also lost to Colorado and at Cal this season, so Fallica doesn’t see any real evidence they’ve turned a corner. He thinks this is the kind of game James Franklin would want to use to make a statement. Pick: Virginia Tech -9.5.
Finally, for North Carolina @ Duke, Carolina is somehow very close to being 4-1, but Fallica admits he has no idea how the Tar Heels won last week, pointing to some really poor play by Pitt’s backup and an injury to their top back. Duke has a strong record against its Tobacco Road rivals, and Fallica is looking for Nate Sheppard and company to get back on track after that shock loss to Georgia Tech last week. His pick: Duke -3.5.
Moneyline ‘Dogs and Key Trends
Fallica also laid out his moneyline ‘dogs, where he went 2-4 last week, bringing his season record to 6-10 on those specific bets. He’s got Boston College +195, Indiana +155, TCU +190, Virginia +280, and Wisconsin +120 on his radar.
We also got some fascinating “Bear Bytes” on general trends. Nine P4 teams have played at least three P4 opponents this season and have not won a single game against any of them. Five of those nine are from the Big Ten: Michigan State and Maryland are 0-4, while Rutgers, Washington, and Penn State are all 0-3. The other four are Arkansas, TCU, Syracuse, and Kansas. Also, six P4 teams have won at least ten home games in a row, with half of them involved in ranked matchups this weekend. Indiana leads the pack with 19 straight home wins, followed by Ole Miss with 13. Interestingly, BYU vs. Notre Dame and Indiana vs. Ohio State both feature home underdogs with these impressive streaks. Ole Miss hosting Missouri is the other such game.
This Week 7 slate is absolutely stacked with potential upsets and statement games. Will Fallica’s bets put him even further into the green, or will Week 7 deliver some more shocks? Get ready, it’s going to be a wild Saturday!
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
Originally reported by Fox Sports.
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