Caleb Williams is officially a full go for Sunday, which is huge news for Bears fans, but honestly, the real story coming out of the books this week is the massive movement on the total for the Bears-Falcons game. Caesars Sports opened that total at 47.5, and by Wednesday evening, it had shot all the way up to 51. People are expecting fireworks.
Caleb’s Return and the Shifting Spreads
So yeah, bookmakers are pretty confident we’ll see Caleb Williams on the field this Sunday, and that’s based on his full participation in practice. You’d think that would firm up the Bears’ spread, right? Not exactly. After climbing from -1.5 to -3 on Monday, the line actually dropped to -2.5 and then to -1.5, returning to its original opening number. What gives? Turns out, Falcons QB Michael Penix, who was dealing with a ribs issue, also practiced Wednesday, albeit in a limited capacity, and he’s expected to start. That probably nudged the line from -3 to -2.5. Then, according to Caesars Sports’ Joey Feazel, “Sharp action on the Bears +2.5” pushed it down further to -1.5. Feazel also mentioned that Williams is worth about 3 to 3.5 points to the spread for Chicago, which is interesting when you compare it to Lamar Jackson’s 6-point value for the Ravens’ offense. Both QBs will be on FOX this Sunday, so we’ll see if those valuations hold up. Chicago’s currently 3-2 straight up and against the spread, while Atlanta is 2-3 in both.
Why Everyone’s Hammering the Over
Forget the spread for a second, because the total for the Bears-Falcons game is where the real action is. That jump from 47.5 to 51 points? That’s not just a little wiggle. Feazel was pretty clear: “The bigger story is we’ve seen a lot of action on the Over,” even with sharp money coming in on Over 48.5 and 49.5. The reason? “Both teams have a lot of good things going on offense, and their defenses haven’t shown up that much.” It’s a classic setup for a shootout, and the public is all over it, taking the Over not just on straight bets but adding it to “all their parlays.” Get ready for some high-scoring football, or a lot of busted parlays if the defenses suddenly decide to show up.
McKay’s London Calling: Jaguars vs. Texans
Away from the Caleb Williams show, professional bettor Randy McKay, who’s been hitting his picks lately, is looking across the pond for his Week 6 action. He’s taking the Jaguars -2.5 against the Texans, with Jacksonville playing its second straight week in London. McKay is liking this spot for the Jags, saying, “It’s a better situation for the Jags, staying in London and not having to travel, like Houston has to.” He’s also pointing to the injury report favoring Jacksonville and expects a “better effort from the Jags, after a dramatic win last week vs. the Eagles.” That dramatic win was a narrow 19-17 victory thanks to a 57-yard field goal as time expired against a shorthanded Philly squad. Meanwhile, the Texans, who are 1-4 straight up and against the spread, finally got their first win last week. Plus, Houston’s running back David Montgomery is doubtful with a groin injury.
So, get ready to tune into FOX this Sunday for those 1 p.m. ET kickoffs. Will the Bears-Falcons game be the offensive explosion everyone’s betting on? Can the Jaguars cover in London and solidify their 4-1 record? It’s Week 6, and there’s plenty on the line for these teams and for everyone who’s laid some cash down!
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
Originally reported by Fox Sports.
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