Notre Dame is sitting at No. 11 in the College Football Playoff rankings with just one loss, but the Fighting Irish are firmly on the bubble, without quality wins to their name. After finishing as the first team out of the CFP last year, they seriously cannot afford any more slip-ups. This Saturday, a matchup against No. 1 Miami is a straight-up must-win game, and for quarterback CJ Carr, it is absolutely the most important game of his career.
Carr’s Steady Hand, Until It Wasn’t
Look, Carr has been one of the steadiest signal-callers in college football. We’ve seen him complete 67% of his passes with an insane 18-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. His 82.7 QBR is eighth-best in the sport, even when you adjust for competition. Over the past two seasons, the Fighting Irish are a combined 17-3 with Carr playing efficient football, breezing through largely manageable competition. The dude can sling it, no doubt. But that’s the thing about “manageable competition,” isn’t it? It doesn’t tell the whole story when the real tests come knocking.
The BYU Nightmare and a Concerning Trend
That brings us to the lone quality matchup Notre Dame has had this season: against No. 9 BYU. And Carr was, to put it mildly, lackluster. He completed only 55% of his passes, going 27-for-49. That’s his lowest completion percentage ever, on his most pass attempts ever. Yikes. There was a brutal stretch in the second and third quarters where he hit just 7 of 17 throws, which BYU obviously capitalized on to build a double-digit lead. It’s not totally surprising when you consider BYU boasts one of the best passing defenses in college football, holding opponents to just 5.5 yards per attempt, the second-best mark in the sport.
But this isn’t just one bad game. This is a genuinely concerning trend for Notre Dame’s highest-profile quarterback in decades. When Carr plays against ranked opponents, his efficiency slips dramatically. He completes only 61% of his passes against ranked teams, averaging 6.6 yards per attempt. Compare that to unranked games, where he’s at 69% completion and 10.0 yards per attempt. Sure, every quarterback takes a step back against tougher competition, but the gap in production for Carr is stunning. In those big games, he’s attempting 33 passes per game, compared to a modest 23.1 attempts against unranked foes. The offense can’t lean on the run game as easily, and Carr’s numbers drop. Against BYU, he completed only 30% of his passes that were more than 10 yards downfield. That won’t cut it.
The good news? Miami’s secondary is reportedly vulnerable. This could be the perfect stage for Carr to flip the script, save Notre Dame’s playoff hopes, and cement his legacy. Saturday is the day.
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
Originally reported by CBS Sports.
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