Forget the usual January 7 or 8 deadline for salary arbitration deals, because the MLB owners are set to lock out players at 8:59 p.m. PT on December 1. This isn’t just a minor delay, folks. The entire arbitration process, which typically sees deals struck by the exchange date based on the current collective bargaining agreement, is now officially in limbo.
Lockout Looms: What Happens When the Clock Hits Midnight?
The expiration of the current CBA on December 1 means a lockout is coming, and that spells trouble for the Dodgers’ historically smooth arbitration process. In a normal offseason, that arbitration exchange date would have been Friday, January 8, or even Thursday, January 7, a date the MLB office had been moving up in recent years. This date has always been a soft deadline, a natural point where deals get done. For instance, the Dodgers managed to secure deals with all four of their arbitration-eligible players by January 8, 2026. Look at Andrew Friedman’s record at the helm: over his first dozen offseasons, the Dodgers have signed a remarkable 83 of 91 arbitration-eligible players, a staggering 92 percent, by the exchange date. But with a lockout barreling down, there is simply no way any deals are getting done by January. Arbitration is stuck in neutral, but it will get completed, eventually.
A Glimpse Back: How 2022 Sets the Stage
We don’t have to guess what this might look like, because we’ve seen it before. Back in 2022, the CBA was finally agreed to on March 10. That caused a ripple effect: spring training got chopped short, and opening day was pushed back a week. For arbitration, the exchange date was moved to March 22, right in the thick of a truncated spring training. The Dodgers got it done with three players that year, reaching agreements with Trea Turner for $21 million, Julio Urías for $8 million, and Caleb Ferguson for $762,500 as he recovered from Tommy John surgery. But for players who exchanged salaries in March and didn’t settle, their arbitration hearings were set for June, during the season. How did that even work? Players got paid at the lower salary the team filed to start the season. If a player won their hearing, they’d get back pay for those first few months to make up the difference. Remember Aaron Judge that year? He filed at $21 million while the New York Yankees filed at $17 million. They eventually settled on June 24 for $19 million, just before a potential hearing. Judge even negotiated a $250,000 bonus if he won American League MVP, which he cashed in November. That’s the chaotic lens we have to use when looking at this winter.
Who’s Caught In The Crossfire? Early Projections Are Already Wild
So, who’s in the mix this time around? The Dodgers have six players eligible for salary arbitration this winter. We got a peek at some 2027 arbitration projections from MLB Trade Rumors, developed by Matt Swartz, in our October offseason roster breakdown. But let’s broaden that scope with projections from Jeff Euston of Cot’s Baseball Contracts and Zach Cioffi at Just Baseball.
* **Brock Stewart**, a right-handed pitcher with 5.093 years of service, made $1.3 million in 2026. His projections for 2027 are $1.8 million from MLBTR, $1.5 million from Cot’s, and $1.65 million from Just Baseball. That’s a pretty wide range right there.
* **Jake Cousins**, another right-handed pitcher with 4.091 years of service, earned $950,000 in 2026. His projections are tighter: $1 million from MLBTR, $1 million from Cot’s, and $950,000 from Just Baseball.
* **Alex Call**, an outfielder with 3.161 years of service, had a 2026 salary of $1.6 million.
These negotiations are going to be a wild ride, and every player’s future hangs in the balance as the December 1 lockout approaches. Get ready, because it’s going to be a long winter.
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
Originally reported by True Blue LA.
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