New England’s quarterback Drake Maye has officially turned a corner, and since Week 4, his 0.423 dropback EPA is ranked FIRST in the league by a significant margin. This isn’t just a good stat; it’s a signal that the Patriots, coming off a tough loss last Thursday in Chicago, are looking to take down the Miami Dolphins on the road this Sunday, and they’re bringing some serious firepower. Records and statistics, even the oddsmakers, agree: the Patriots are the superior team here.
Maye’s Air Show vs. Dolphins’ Defense
This passing game matchup? It could get ugly, folks, but not for New England. Yeah, the Patriots have had their moments where they shoot themselves in the foot, but lately, their pass offense has been performing at an elite level. Maye shaking off those early-season issues has clearly unleashed something special. Now, compare that league-leading 0.423 EPA to the Dolphins’ pass defense: they’re ranked only 23rd in the league over that same span, clocking in at 0.174. Sure, it’s the best among AFC East pass defenses in those four weeks, but let’s be real, that’s not enough to seriously challenge Maye and his crew. Despite some injury woes, this feels like a matchup the Patriots can only lose if their notorious turnover problems decide to rear their ugly heads again. If they hold onto the ball, it’s their game to win.
Defense Needs to Step Up, But Has an Edge
New England’s pass defense, on the other hand, has been a bit of a rollercoaster lately. Last week’s loss to the Bears? That might’ve been the absolute low point: big plays, missed tackles, zero takeaways. That’s the unholy trinity of underwhelming defensive football right there. Even with that loss fresh in our minds, and the Dolphins showing some recent strides moving the ball through the air, we’re still feeling good about the Patriots’ pass defense in this matchup. Why? Because the Dolphins just don’t have Chicago’s talent across the board, and we’re talking both on and off the field. Plus, the Patriots have had 10 full days to prepare for an inexperienced Dolphins unit. That kind of prep time means New England should be able to dictate this matchup, both in the trenches and the secondary.
Stevenson’s Uphill Battle on the Ground
Now, let’s talk about the ground game, and here’s where things get a bit dicier for the Patriots. Rhamondre Stevenson is pretty much a one-man show on the ground right now, getting little to no support from the offensive line’s blocking or the other support cast. While getting Ben Brown back could potentially help, any improvements are likely to be marginal, and that includes TreVeyon Henderson being another week removed from his ankle sprain. Against the Dolphins, this could create some problem: Miami’s run defense is arguably the best unit on the team, even though it looked better early in the season. Still, against New England’s inconsistent ground
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
Originally reported by Pats Pulpit.
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