Drake Maye, last year’s MVP runner-up, is absolutely reeling with just one touchdown and a whopping six interceptions through three games this season. It’s a brutal look for a New England Patriots squad sitting at 1-2, looking completely different from the unbeaten Buffalo Bills team they’re about to face on Sunday.
The Unstoppable Bills Are Just Scoring For Fun
Let’s just be honest, the Bills are a wagon right now. They’re 3-0, coming off a solid 24-16 win over the Chargers last week. These guys aren’t just winning, they’re dominating the scoreboard, leading the entire NFL in scoring with an insane 33.7 points per game. And Josh Allen? He’s an absolute beast, already racking up 900 total yards and an unbelievable 11 touchdowns. The man is on a mission. What’s even wilder is that Buffalo isn’t just winning straight up, they’re also 3-0 against the spread. Talk about a team that’s clicking on all cylinders, heading into this Week 4 matchup at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, N.Y.
Maye’s Struggles Are Just The Start of New England’s Problems
On the flip side, the Patriots are in a serious funk. Their 1-2 record looks even worse when you consider their last game, a crushing 35-6 loss to Jacksonville. That’s a total gut punch! And yeah, Maye’s stat line of one touchdown and six interceptions is a major, flashing red light. As a team, New England has only put up a measly 36 points through three games. That’s just not going to cut it in the NFL, especially when you’re facing a high-flying offense like Buffalo’s. There’s one glimmer of hope: the Patriots’ defense is actually pretty solid, sitting fifth in the league in yards allowed. They’ll need every bit of that stout D to try and slow down Allen. It’s a tough ask, but they split last year’s games with the Bills, with each team somehow winning on the road.
Why A Proven Model Sees A Low-Scoring Grind
Okay, so what does the data say for this AFC East showdown? SportsLine’s proven model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, has been absolutely on fire, up well over $7,000 for $100 players since it started, including a 54-43 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024. And this model is eyeing a specific play for Sunday’s game: the Under 50 points. The prediction? A combined 48 points, with the Under hitting in 53 percent of simulations. It’s a surprising take, considering how much the Bills are scoring, but the model points to Buffalo’s game totals actually dropping, from 77 and 72 in Weeks 1 and 2 down to just 40 in Week 3. Couple that with the Patriots’ major scoring issues and their tough defense, and you can see why the model thinks this one could be a bit of a grind.
This game kicks off Sunday at 1 p.m. ET. With the Bills favored by seven points and that Under 50 call, it’s going to be fascinating to see if Maye can somehow turn things around, or if the Bills keep rolling and deepen New England’s early-season woes.
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
Originally reported by CBS Sports.
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