Crunch time is hitting the NASCAR Cup Series hard with only four races left in the regular season, and a proven computer model is throwing some absolutely wild predictions out there for Sunday’s Iowa Corn 350 Powered by Ethanol. Mike McClure, a legendary DFS player with over $2 million in career winnings, has his simulation model, which has nailed 30 winners since 2021, saying it’s time to **fade defending champion Byron** despite his strong history at Iowa. This is huge, man.
The Champ Is OUT?! What McClure’s Model Just Said About Byron
Okay, so Byron is the defending champion of this very race, right? And he’s already got a win and a runner-up finish in his two events at Iowa. You’d think that makes him a no-brainer favorite. But McClure’s model, the one that famously nailed Denny Hamlin’s back-to-back wins earlier this year, sees things differently. It’s calling to fade Byron at +1100, and honestly, the reasons are tough to argue with. The guy is still winless in 2026, and he hasn’t even sniffed a finish higher than third in any event. What’s worse, he’s been ice cold recently, finishing 12th or worse in five of his last six races. The model straight up doesn’t like him as a top contender for Sunday, saying he’ll barely crack the top 10. That’s a brutal assessment for a defending champ.
Kyle Larson Is the Model’s Dark Horse Pick You HAVE to See
Here’s where it gets really spicy. While the model is down on Byron, it’s super high on Kyle Larson at +850, calling him a top-2 contender. Yeah, Larson’s had some bad luck with accidents slowing him down recently, you can’t deny that. But you gotta remember, he’s not far removed from a stretch of four straight top-5 finishes this year alone. Plus, the guy is historically strong on short tracks. And get this: he led a massive 80 laps at this very race back in 2024 before an accident took him out. That kind of past performance on this track, combined with the model’s confidence, makes him an incredibly compelling pick to absolutely smash on Sunday.
This Iowa Corn 350 on Sunday at 3:30 p.m. ET is critical. “The Chase” kicks off on September 6, and this race, along with the other three remaining, is super important for guys around the postseason cut line like Austin Cindric, Ryan Preece, and Erik Jones. Ryan Blaney already snagged pole position, and FanDuel Sportsbook has him as the +250 favorite. Other top picks include Joey Logano (+650), Christopher Bell (+650), and Ty Gibbs (+700). But McClure’s model is also eyeing another longshot, higher than +1500, who could totally surprise everyone and make a run for the lead. You just know these drivers are gonna leave it all out on the track.
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
Originally reported by CBS Sports.
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