Las Vegas landed the No. 1 pick of the 2026 NFL draft in Fernando Mendoza, and an advanced stat from FTN is already making serious waves. FTN’s Aaron Schatz, a guru of statistical models for the NFL, just dropped a bombshell in their Annual Football Almanac: Mendoza is ranked as the fourth-best quarterback prospect since the 2021 draft class. This isn’t just hype, folks, these numbers are legit.
What These Numbers Even Mean
So, what does that ranking even tell us? Schatz uses two powerful metrics: QBASE 2.0 and TDYAR/A. QBASE 2.0 is the real deal, combining models from Andrew Healy, Alexandre Olbrecht, and Jeremy Rosen. It digs deep into a quarterback’s college passing stats, adjusting for how good his teammates and opponents were. Plus, it factors in how many years he started, his rushing ability, and rewards consistent improvement while penalizing one-year wonders. This isn’t just surface-level stuff.
Then there’s TDYAR/A, Total Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement per Attempt. For context, a 0 value is replacement-level. Anything over 1.5? We’re talking Hall of Fame territory. To figure this out, they run 50,000 simulations for each quarterback. That’s insane detail. Mendoza’s TDYAR/A? A legitimate 0.57. That puts him in some seriously elite company right out of the gate.
How He Stacks Up Against The Best
And when you look at who he’s trailing, it makes that 0.57 even more impressive. Only three QBs since 2021 have a higher TDYAR/A: 2021 No. 1 pick Trevor Lawrence with a 0.73, 2024 first overall selection Caleb Williams at 0.61, and then 2021 second pick Zach Wilson, who clocks in at 0.60. Schatz himself called Wilson an outlier, humorously noting the “weird COVID season.”
Think about that for a second. If you combined the last three quarterback draft classes, Mendoza would be the second-best option available. Second! This includes the loaded 2024 class that gave us six first-rounders. Jayden Daniels, from that same class, was the next closest to Mendoza with a 0.34. J.J. McCarthy was 0.26, Drake Maye a mere 0.03, Bo Nix negative 0.08, and Michael Penix Jr. even lower at negative 0.43. Mendoza is in a whole different league there.
He also outranks some of last year’s top picks. He’s one spot ahead of Cam Ward, who had a 0.38, and way above Jaxson Dart’s 0.20, which is 10th since 2021. Mendoza didn’t just win the 2025 Heisman Trophy; he *led college football* with 41 touchdown passes and 10.78 adjusted yards per attempt. Ward was right behind him with 39 TDs and 10.52 adjusted yards per attempt, but Mendoza was still better. The guy is a machine.
What It Means
These numbers are not just a nice stat on a rookie minicamp day. They set a massive bar for Fernando Mendoza’s rookie season. Coming off a Heisman win and now with these advanced projections screaming ‘elite,’ all eyes will be on him as he gets ready for his first taste of NFL action. How quickly can he translate that insane college production and those high-level projections into real game performance? The league definitely noticed him getting drafted No. 1 overall, but they might not realize just how good these advanced metrics say he truly is. We’re about to find out.
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
Originally reported by Yahoo Sports.
Leave a Reply