The value of a star quarterback to the spread is getting a serious reality check in college football, especially in Week 9. While an NFL guy like Lamar Jackson can swing the line by up to 6 points, college QBs just don’t move the needle as much. Caesars Sports head of football trading Joey Feazel broke it down, saying even with Ohio State’s Julian Sayin out against USC, it’s “not much of a difference, only 2 or 2.5 points.” He says it’s because a team like Ohio State is “stacked from top to bottom.” This week, a lot of the action is swirling around the monster Florida-Georgia clash, and the books are definitely feeling the heat.
Georgia Dominates the Betting Slips, Florida Needs to Show Up
Forget the hype around individual players for a second, because the real story is how the money is moving for the Florida-Georgia matchup. This is arguably the marquee game in Week 8, going down at a neutral site in Atlanta at 3:30 p.m. ET. Georgia, sitting at 6-1 straight up (SU) and 5-2 against the spread (ATS), is fresh off a bye week, but that bye came after a brutal 27-24 upset loss to Auburn, where the Bulldogs were a massive 19.5-point home favorite. Florida, also 5-2 SU and 4-3 ATS, is also coming off a bye, but their last result was a 27-24 road win against Texas as 13.5-point underdogs, snapping a two-game skid.
Caesars Sports opened Georgia as a 10.5-point favorite, and let me tell you, that line has been climbing all week, hitting -12.5 by Thursday morning with stops at -11, -11.5, and -12 along the way. Sharp money jumped on Georgia at -10.5, kicking off the whole surge. Feazel confirmed there’s “more Georgia money for sure,” and he anticipates “much more money coming in on Georgia, especially on Saturday,” with a ton of Georgia moneyline action expected in parlays. That’s why the books are in a bind: “We’re gonna need Florida to hang in there,” Feazel admitted. Even the total has dropped, from 56.5 to 55.5 and now to 55, driven by “sharper money on Under 56.5.” It sounds like the books are bracing for a potential Georgia beatdown and just hoping Florida keeps it respectable.
Iowa’s Freefall and Wisconsin’s Surprise Surge
Over in Iowa City, the Hawkeyes (5-2 SU/4-3 ATS) completely cratered their College Football Playoff dreams in Week 8, losing 13-10 to Minnesota as 7.5-point favorites. They went from 15th in the AP poll straight to unranked. Now, Wisconsin (5-2 SU/4-3 ATS) rolls into town for the FOX Big Noon Kickoff at noon ET on Saturday, fresh off a huge 24-7 upset victory over then-No. 16 USC. Caesars Sports opened Iowa as 3.5-point home favorites, and that line hasn’t budged.
But don’t let the static line fool you, the money is speaking volumes. Feazel noted “much more Wisconsin money here, on the spread and the moneyline.” It’s clear people aren’t exactly lining up to bet on this struggling Iowa squad. The books are in a tough spot again, with Feazel stating, “We’re gonna need Iowa to score a bunch of points.” Not just to win or cover, but to counter the heavy action on Wisconsin. The total for this game is absurdly low, dropping to 36.5 from a high of 38, with “some sharper action driving” it down. Feazel called it “a classic really low total, one of the lowest of the year.” It’s a stark picture of two teams heading in completely opposite directions, and the betting market is reflecting it big time.
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
Originally reported by Fox Sports.
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