The Detroit Lions (3-2) are gearing up for their first divisional opponent in Week 7, with the Green Bay Packers (4-2) rolling into Ford Field fresh off two big wins. But here’s the kicker: for all the hype about Green Bay’s deep passing attack, a deep dive into the film shows it’s basically a house of cards when they’re actually in a tough spot. Yeah, you heard that right.
The “Explosive” Numbers Don’t Tell the Whole Story
Everyone’s eyes are gonna be on that Lions defense this Sunday, especially the secondary. Heading into Week 6, the Packers were boasting the fourth-highest explosive play rate in passing offense across the league. Meanwhile, our division rivals’ defense checked in at a rough 17th, and get this, they’re giving up a league-high 297.4 passing yards per game. Sounds like a mismatch, right? Like Green Bay’s just gonna sling it deep all day and torch them. But a full-on film study of all 32 of the Packers’ pass attempts of 20+ air yards this season tells a completely different story.
Jordan Love’s Arm Shrinks Under Pressure
Here’s the wild part: out of those 32 deep passes of 20+ air yards, only FOUR have actually come when the Packers were trailing their opponent. Let that sink in. And it gets even crazier, all four of those trailing deep passes happened in just one game, Week 3 against the Atlanta Falcons. Two of those attempts were in the fourth quarter, after the two-minute warning, with the Packers down by a whopping 35-14. And guess what? All four attempts were incomplete. Jordan Love has thrown 60 passes this season while his team was behind, but only 6.67% of those were deep balls. Compare that to when the Packers are leading: Love attempted 103 passes, and a massive 15.5% of them were deep. It’s a total flip! When they’re behind, Love is attempting short passes (under 10 air yards) 73.3% of the time. When they’re leading, that drops to 62.2%. It’s clear Packers Head Coach Matt LaFleur gets aggressive when he’s comfortable, living in advantageous game scripts. But the second the pressure ramps up, his focus shifts to a low-risk approach. So, while that deep passing game *looks* like a strength, the reality is it’s more like a “kill shot” tool they only pull out when they’re already in control.
What does this mean for the Lions this Sunday? They’re facing a team whose aggressive deep passing is, frankly, conditional. Knowing this tendency should absolutely shape how Detroit’s secondary approaches the game. Keep those deep safeties ready if Green Bay gets a lead, but if the Lions can jump ahead, we might see Love revert to a much safer, shorter passing game. This Week 7 divisional clash is gonna be a massive test, but armed with this knowledge, Detroit has a real chance to shut down what everyone *thinks* is Green Bay’s biggest weapon. You gotta love finding out your opponent’s ‘strength’ is just a bluff!
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
Originally reported by Pride of Detroit.
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