This weekend, Indiana hosts Ohio State in what’s being called the biggest home game in program history, and get this: the Hoosiers, fresh off a national championship season, are somehow playing as underdogs. That just feels wild, right? Especially when you look at how these guys have been closing out games.
Hoosiers Own the Clutch Moments, But There’s a Catch
Listen, Indiana knows how to win. Period. They are one of the most buttoned-up teams in the whole country. No sloppy mistakes, no turnovers, no silly penalties. What do they do? They make winning plays at the very end to seal the deal. Since 2025, if a game is decided by one score, IU is a perfect 6-0. This season alone, they’ve squeezed out a six-point win against Northwestern and just last weekend, they took down Nebraska by three. They just find a way. But you gotta wonder, is this unbelievable run in close games sustainable? Are they due to lose one of these nail-biters? The expert pick is definitely hinting at it.
Same Name, Different Game? And Ohio State’s Own Hang-Ups
Now, while IU still finds ways to win, let’s be real: this isn’t exactly the *same* Indiana team from last year’s championship run. Josh Hoover is under center now, and he’s not Fernando Mendoza. Hoover gets the job done, hitting those fantastic receivers, but the offense seems to lean on explosive plays a bit too much at times. The offensive line, which was a brick wall last year, isn’t quite as dominant. It’s a small dip, sure, but run blocking is tougher and pass protection isn’t as clean as it was. On defense, they’re missing that elite lockdown corner and are giving up more explosive plays this season, two more plays of 10+ yards per game, even without facing a brutal schedule. Still, they keep pulling out victories, which is the craziest part.
Then you look at Ohio State, who, yeah, is one of the top teams in the nation, but they’ve got their own question marks. Mostly, it’s about their offense trying to score against actual good defenses. Seriously, go back to the start of last season: they only put up 14 against Texas, then a measly 10 against Indiana in the Big Ten Championship Game, and finished with 14 versus Miami in the CFP. Things have looked a *little* better this season, with 23 against Texas, but only three of those came in the second half. And while they just dropped 31 on Iowa, how will they fare against an Indiana defense that, despite its slips, keeps making winning plays? Plus, Ohio State’s offensive line is banged up and can get completely overwhelmed. Everyone knows Jeremiah Smith is the best player in football and they’re gonna force him the ball, but what happens if Indiana doubles him all game? Who else steps up for Julian Sayin to make big plays?
Honestly, all this info just screams one thing: this is gonna be a grind. The expert feels an “Under” pick here is the smart move. Neither team looks like they’re going to light up the scoreboard unless they can find a way to consistently hit those explosive plays. And you can bet both coaching staffs know that’s the plan. How many long, 10-play drives are actually going to end in six points? We’re about to find out.
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
Originally reported by Fox Sports.
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