Miami QB Darian Mensah is now the Heisman favorite at +110, a massive shift from just weeks ago when Ohio State wide receiver Jeremiah Smith had better than even-money odds to win. Smith, once the clear frontrunner, has seen his betting line lengthen significantly to +275, putting him just ahead of Miami WR Malachi Toney at +325. No other player even has odds better than 12-1, and it all boils down to one critical injury and a tough loss for the Buckeyes.
The Buckeye QB Roller Coaster and Smith’s Steady Dominance
Over the first eight weeks of the season, Smith was absolutely carving up defenses, setting Big Ten records nearly every week, and looking like a lock for the Heisman. The dude was just dominant. But then the unexpected happened: Ohio State quarterback Julian Sayin went down with an injury against Indiana. Even after their bye week and before Week 9, Smith was still the betting favorite. But everything flipped after the Buckeyes lost 30-18 to USC. Smith’s odds got a lot longer, even though he was still out there balling out in Los Angeles. He snagged 10 catches for 83 yards and a touchdown in that game, even setting the Big Ten record for career receiving TDs. So, he’s still a record-breaker, still putting up numbers. The catch? It was his third straight game under 100 yards receiving, a dip after he exploded for 23 catches and 423 yards against Illinois and Iowa in Weeks 4 and 5. Smith’s season totals are still insane: 62 catches for 1,067 yards and 13 touchdowns.
The Quarterback Question That Could Decide Everything
The USC game marked the first start for Ohio State freshman QB Luke Fahey, and he definitely understood the assignment: get the ball to Smith. Of Fahey’s 11 completions to players other than Smith, no one else had more than two catches. It’s clear Fahey trusts him. But here’s the thing: history tells us that Heisman-winning receivers usually have elite quarterback play alongside them. Look at 2024, when Travis Hunter won the Heisman. Yeah, he was a two-way star, but he also put up WR1 stats catching passes from Shedeur Sanders, who finished eighth in Heisman voting. Or go back to DeVonta Smith in 2020: he hauled in 117 passes for 1,856 yards, while QB Mac Jones set the FBS completion percentage record and finished third in the Heisman race. Even in 1991, Desmond Howard’s Heisman came with Michigan QB Elvis Grbac completing two-thirds of his passes and leading the nation in pass efficiency. Fahey’s got potential, sure, but he’s got a long way to go to match Sayin’s production and the connection those two had on the field.
Fahey gets his second start this Saturday against Oregon. It’s a home game in Columbus, so maybe a friendlier atmosphere will help him settle in. One thing is for certain: Smith is gonna be his absolute focal point. Oregon coach Dan Lanning even joked about trying to put 12 players on the field to defend Smith during his Monday news conference. Even if Fahey improves with every single game in November, that gap in quarterback play compared to Sayin could ultimately decide if Smith stays relevant in the Heisman discussion. Voters might get enamored with someone else if that production takes a hit, even if Smith is still stacking up 10-catch games. This weekend is huge for the Buckeyes and for Smith’s Heisman dreams.
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
Originally reported by Yahoo Sports.
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