Kyle Larson is practically jogging to the NASCAR Cup Series championship this year. Forget a nail-biter finish, because this thing is basically wrapped up, with Larson needing a ridiculously low nine points to clinch the title this weekend. The dude is sitting on a massive 67-point lead over Christopher Bell and a 70-point cushion on Denny Hamlin. Seriously, you could just hand him the trophy now.
Larson’s Championship Sprint
This isn’t your usual four-driver, equal-shot shootout, folks. This is a one-man show, and Kyle Larson is the star. He could literally clinch this whole damn thing by just bagging eight stage points. EIGHT! For Bell or Hamlin to even have a prayer, they’d need a day so epic it would make history, and the chances of that happening are looking slimmer than a driver’s pit stop window.
Think about it. Christopher Bell, trailing by 67 points, would need to win the race AND pull off a monster 17 stage points (or 16 if he snags the fastest lap) just to hit the minimum 69 points required. Sure, Bell had a massive 73-point day earlier this year at Darlington, and he did grab 18 stage points at Charlotte, the last 1.5-mile track. He even won at Homestead back in 2023, so he’s shown he can perform. But doing all that while Larson is still out there, just needing a handful of points? That’s asking for a miracle.
And Denny Hamlin? He’s 70 points back, and would need to win with 14 stage points (or 13 with the fastest lap) to get the 72-point day he needs. The kicker? Hamlin hasn’t had a 72-point day all season. Not one! He’s pulled 17 stage points in four races, but hitting that 72 mark? The source says it plain: that ain’t happening on Sunday. Homestead is Larson’s playground, too, with two wins there in the last four years. Tyler Reddick is also going to be a force there, but Larson’s the one to beat.
Beyond the Cup: O’Reilly and Trucks
Now, while the Cup Series feels like a done deal, the other national series have their own battles brewing, though the smart money still goes with the points leaders. In the O’Reilly standings, Justin Allgaier holds a 22-point advantage over Jesse Love, with Corey Day 23 points back, Carson Kvapil 31 points adrift, and Sheldon Creed 42 points behind.
Allgaier is looking strong, having defended his Homestead race title in March 2025 and consistently qualifying in the top five for the last three years. He’s going to be fast, plain and simple, and he’s got the driver’s seat locked down. Jesse Love, on the other hand, has been solid at Homestead with a sixth-place last year and a fourth the year before, but he’s gonna need a much better qualifying effort to really make a run for his second consecutive title. He’s got the speed and savvy to try an alternate strategy, which could be interesting.
A lot of folks are probably looking at Corey Day, especially with his sprint-car background making him comfortable racing near the wall. But let’s be real, his truck starts at Homestead haven’t been great, never better than 16th starting or 15th finishing in two attempts. He’s got four wins this year, and Homestead *should* be his kind of track, but that’s a boatload of pressure on a 20-year-old with limited asphalt experience. Carson Kvapil, who finished 10th last year in his single start, is much improved, but him winning and stacking enough stage points to outpace Allgaier is a serious long shot.
So, get ready, race fans. This weekend isn’t about *if* Kyle Larson will win the championship, it’s about *how quickly* he’s going to make it official. The Cup Series title is his for the taking, and honestly, it looks like the other two series are shaping up for their points leaders to take the crown, too. It’s going to be a celebration for the dominant drivers, and a clear signal of who was truly in control all season long.
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
Originally reported by Fox Sports.
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