You guys, Madison Keys had a *ninety-seven percent* win probability against Zheng Qinwen on Saturday. Ninety-seven! She was up 5-0 in the third set, serving for the match at 5-1, 40-30. I’m telling you, it looked like it was in the bag, like she was absolutely cruising to the Round of 16 for her fourth straight Grand Slam. But then, in what can only be described as a brutal, crushing collapse, she lost 1-6, 7-6, 7-5 and got knocked out of the US Open.
Third Set Meltdown of the Century
Seriously, it was like watching a train wreck in slow motion. Keys, the No. 22 seed, was absolutely dominant in the first set, just blasting through Zheng 6-1. She looked incredible, like she had total control of the court. The second set went to a tiebreaker, and she dropped that one, which stings a bit, but hey, third set, right? No big deal. She then came out firing, sprinting to a massive 5-0 lead in the decisive third. Five-zip! It was over. She even got to match point at 5-1, 40-30 on her serve. That’s when IBM watsonx calculated her win probability at 97 percent. Ninety-seven! You’re telling me you have a 97% chance and it slips away? Unbelievable.
Qinwen’s Unthinkable Comeback
But Zheng Qinwen, man, she just refused to quit. She fought off that match point, broke Keys’ serve, and then just absolutely went on a tear. Qinwen won the final seven games of the match, just like that. Keys never even saw another match point. This wasn’t just a comeback; it was “the unthinkable,” as the tennis world is calling it. What a turnaround. You gotta remember, Qinwen is no slouch. She won the gold medal at the Paris Olympics back in 2024 and made it to the Australian Open final earlier that year. She had a tough 2025 with injuries and her ranking dropped to No. 121, forcing her to qualify for this US Open. She battled through three qualifying matches and now she’s won three in the main draw. That’s some serious grit right there.
This loss is just a gut punch for Keys. At 31, she’s been a finalist and a semifinalist at the US Open, but that home slam title just keeps eluding her. Her lone major championship remains the 2025 Australian Open. She even fought off five match points in her second-round three-set victory over Anna Bondar, showing that fight, but she just couldn’t seal the deal on Saturday. Now, Zheng Qinwen moves on to face the winner of Iga Swiatek and Marie Bouzkova. Qinwen already beat Swiatek for that Paris gold, so that could be a huge rematch!
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
Originally reported by The Sporting News.
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