Malik Nabers is flying off draft boards around pick 36 right now, but a proven computer model at SportsLine says he’s not even a top-15 receiver, and this isn’t some wild guess. We’re talking about the same model that straight up nailed Terry McLaurin’s rough 2025 season. August is here, the NFL season kicks off on Wednesday, September 9th, and if you’re serious about your fantasy league, you need to pay attention to these numbers. Fantasy success hinges on finding those hidden gems and avoiding the busts, and this prediction is a massive red flag for anyone eyeing Nabers in the second or early third round.
The Numbers Don’t Lie, and This Model Has a Track Record
Listen, we’ve all been burned by a fantasy bust before, but this SportsLine model has been money, time and time again. Last year, it accurately called that Commanders receiver Terry McLaurin would fall way short of his top-50 ADP. The result? A season where he absolutely cratered, pulling in career lows in 582 receiving yards and just 3 touchdown catches. That’s a brutal drop from nearly 1,100 yards and 13 scores the year before! Sure, injuries were a factor, but his per-game averages were down across the board too, proving it wasn’t just a fluke week or two, but a whole season struggle. Anyone who dodged that bullet in their draft felt like a genius, and that’s thanks to this model.
But it’s not just McLaurin. This thing has a history of spotting the real deal. It called A.J. Brown a sleeper back in 2020, nailed Jonathan Taylor’s monstrous 2021 season, and even correctly predicted C.J. Stroud would take a step back in 2024. Before that, it identified Derrick Henry in 2019, Christian McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara in 2018, and Davante Adams in 2017 as sleepers. This isn’t some random dart throw. SportsLine simulated the entire NFL season 10,000 times, so when they drop rankings and bust predictions, you gotta listen.
Nabers’ Red Flags Are Waving for Your Draft
So, about Malik Nabers. He’s currently coming off the board around pick 36, which puts him firmly in that crucial second or early third round territory. But the model’s simulation doesn’t even have him cracking the top-15 receivers. Let that sink in. We’re talking about a guy people are drafting as a high-end WR2 or low-end WR1, and the data says he’s not even close to that tier. In fact, players like DeVonta Smith, Nico Collins, and Zay Flowers are all projected to finish above him.
Why the downer on Nabers? The reasons are pretty clear and they spell disaster for fantasy owners. He tore his ACL last season, and then had to undergo a follow-up procedure in the spring. That’s a huge hurdle to overcome, especially for a skill position player who relies on quick cuts and explosiveness. Plus, the New York Giants are expected to lean heavily on the run game under offensive coordinator Matt Nagy. Fewer pass attempts, more hand-offs. That means fewer targets, fewer opportunities, and a serious cap on Nabers’ upside. Drafting a guy around pick 36 who’s coming off major surgery and is on an offense that wants to pound the ball? That’s a massive gamble.
Your fantasy football draft prep is in full swing, and veterans like Josh Allen, Jonathan Taylor, and Puka Nacua are dominating the top spots. Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs are holding out for new deals, making other picks even more critical. Avoiding busts like Nabers, while chasing those sleepers, is the name of the game. Are you really going to gamble on a guy with a recent ACL surgery and a run-heavy offense in a crucial early round? Or are you going to listen to the model that’s been money time and time again? Head to SportsLine, check out those full rankings, and get your draft strategy locked down. This ain’t the year to get stuck with a bust.
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
Originally reported by CBS Sports.
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