The 2026 NFL season kicks off on September 9, and if you are already prepping for your fantasy football draft, you need to hear this right now. A super-smart computer model that has called some huge upsets in the past just simulated the entire season 10,000 times, and it is sounding the alarm on some big-name players. The first name on the bust list might shock you: New York Giants receiver Malik Nabers.
This Model Called McLaurin’s Nightmare Season
Before you shrug off a computer model, know this: SportsLine has a track record that is just insane. Last year, this exact same model accurately flagged Commanders receiver Terry McLaurin as a guy to avoid. Nobody thought it, but the model called it when McLaurin was going in the top 50 picks. What happened? He put up career lows in receiving yards with just 582 and only 3 touchdown catches, a massive drop from his nearly 1,100 yards and career-high 13 scores the season before. Injuries played a part, sure, but his per-game averages were down across the board. If you dodged McLaurin last year, you saved yourself a major headache.
That’s not all. This model has a history of spotting the real deals. It pinpointed A.J. Brown as a sleeper way back in 2020, nailed Jonathan Taylor’s monstrous 2021 season, and even predicted C.J. Stroud would take a step back in 2024. Talk about prescient. It also called sleepers like Derrick Henry in 2019, Christian McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara in 2018, and Davante Adams in 2017. When this model speaks, fantasy managers need to listen up.
Why Malik Nabers Is Your 2026 Fantasy Trap
Now, about Malik Nabers. He is currently flying off draft boards around pick No. 30 in fantasy leagues. That’s early second, maybe early third round territory. But SportsLine’s simulations do not even have him cracking the top-15 receivers. Think about that: they have DeVonta Smith, Nico Collins, and Zay Flowers all ranked higher than Nabers. That is a massive difference in expected production compared to his ADP.
There are some serious red flags here too. Nabers tore his ACL last season, and then had a follow-up procedure this spring. Coming back from that is tough enough, but the Giants’ offense under coordinator Matt Nagy is also expected to lean heavily on the run game. That is a double whammy for a receiver trying to get back to full speed and command targets. Drafting Nabers in the second or early third round looks like a seriously risky play, and this model is screaming “bust!”
Speaking of busts, SportsLine also tagged Bills running back James Cook. You can bet there are more landmines identified by this model. You need to check out the full list of fantasy busts before you make your picks.
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
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