The 2026 NFL regular season kicks off in just over three weeks, hitting us hard on Wednesday, Sept. 9, and if you’re not locked in on your fantasy draft prep, you’re already behind. Week 1 of the preseason is done, which means it’s crunch time to finalize those draft boards. This year, one name is screaming “major bust alert” at a super high draft cost: New York Giants receiver Malik Nabers, who’s consistently going off the board around pick No. 34.
The Model That Nails Your League
Listen, we’ve all been there, drafting a guy too high only to watch him tank your season. But a proven computer model at SportsLine has simulated the entire NFL season 10,000 times, and they are dropping serious intel. Last year, this same model accurately called that Commanders receiver Terry McLaurin would fall way short of his top-50 ADP. The dude went from nearly 1,100 receiving yards and a career-high 13 touchdown catches in 2024 to career lows of 582 receiving yards and just 3 touchdowns in 2025. Injuries played a part, sure, but his per-game averages were down across the board. Anyone who faded him dodged a massive headache. This isn’t a fluke, either. This model flagged A.J. Brown as a sleeper in 2020, nailed Jonathan Taylor’s monstrous 2021 season, and even predicted C.J. Stroud would take a step back in 2024. Seriously, it called Derrick Henry in 2019, Christian McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara in 2018, and Davante Adams in 2017 as sleepers. When this thing talks busts, you gotta listen.
Why Nabers Is The Trap Pick
So, what’s the deal with Malik Nabers? He’s getting drafted around pick No. 34, which is like, second or early third round territory for most leagues. But SportsLine’s model doesn’t even have him as a top-15 receiver. Think about that for a second! It ranks guys like DeVonta Smith and Nico Collins above him. The red flags are flying high, too. Nabers isn’t a lock to be ready for the start of the season after tearing his ACL last season, and then he had a follow-up procedure this past spring. That’s a serious comeback story you don’t want to bank your fantasy season on. Plus, the Giants are expected to lean hard into the run game under offensive coordinator Matt Nagy. Combine the health concerns with a potentially run-heavy scheme, and you’ve got a recipe for a bust at a way too high price.
Your fantasy football draft strategy needs to be on point with the regular season kicking off on Wednesday, Sept. 9. While big names like Josh Allen, Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Ja’Marr Chase are headlining the 2026 rankings, the real key to winning your league is avoiding the landmines. Keep Malik Nabers far away from your second or third round picks. Your league title might just depend on it!
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
Originally reported by CBS Sports.
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