Martin Perez is out there getting away with it, racking up a 3.12 ERA through 115.1 innings in late August, and somehow, it’s still working for the Atlanta Braves. This dude’s predictive metrics are chilling in the low to mid 4s, which usually tells you things are about to go sideways. Yet here we are, watching him muddle through with what the stats call “substantial fortune” for productive innings.
The Luckiest Arm in the Game?
Seriously, how is Perez pulling this off? His strikeout and walk rates look pretty similar to what you’d see from a struggling pitcher. His ground ball rate is only “somewhat better” than what’s on the other side of the mound. And if you check out his location heatmap, those sinkers and cutters? They are essentially scattered across the strike zone. It’s not precision pitching, it’s a prayer and a promise, and it has been a fortunate run, no doubt. The Braves just wrapped up two electric series against the NL’s top teams, and now they’re facing the Rockies. Atlanta grabbed a win Friday night thanks to Grant Holmes, and they are hoping Perez can keep this wild ride going for a series win.
Rockies Present a Favorable Batting Matchup
The good news for the Braves is that even with Perez’s tightrope act, they have a pretty favorable pitching matchup today against the Colorado Rockies. Ryan Feltner is taking the mound for the Rockies, and his numbers are screaming “hit me hard.” He’s got a 5.53 FIP and a 4.98 xFIP over 97.2 innings this season. Feltner has never been a strikeout pitcher, but he finds success when he can actually limit walks. The problem? He’s walking nearly four batters per nine innings this season, making it a rough go with less than two strikeouts for every walk. His changeup is his best pitch, very vertical with minimal horizontal run. But his fastball is average velocity with a below average shape, and while his slider is thrown hard, it only has fine movement. He mixes in a sweeper, curve, and sinker, but the bottom line is this: Feltner doesn’t strike people out, his command isn’t great, and his ground ball rate is nothing special.
The Braves’ bats need to feast on Feltner’s profile. They gotta make sure Perez gets some serious run support to keep that lucky streak alive. The Rockies are bad enough that Perez’s fortunate run could very plausibly live another day. So let’s see the Braves get it done. The game is Saturday, August 29, at 4:10 p.m. ET, live from Truist Park in Atlanta.
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
Originally reported by Yahoo Sports.
Leave a Reply