Alright, fantasy hockey maniacs, listen up because a name you’re seeing high on draft boards, Matt Boldy, is coming with a massive red flag for 2026-27. We’re talking about a player whose current average draft position, sitting around 13.6, just might be a trap that sinks your season before it even starts. You’ve gotta be ready to dodge these landmines if you want to hoist that fantasy trophy, and Boldy’s numbers are screaming “caution.”
Don’t Fall For The 42-Goal Mirage
Last season, Matt Boldy went off for a career-high 42 goals, a huge jump from his previous best of 31 back in 2022-23. And yeah, 42 goals sounds amazing on paper, right? But here’s where we dig in, because the underlying stats for that incredible year tell a different story. His shooting percentage absolutely exploded, hitting a career-high 16.5% in 2025-26. That’s a massive leap from his career average of 11.8% heading into that campaign, and honestly, that kind of outlier performance usually doesn’t repeat. When a player’s shooting percentage spikes that dramatically, it often points to a healthy dose of puck luck rather than sustainable, elite-level production. If you’re drafting him at 13.6, you’re betting on that 16.5% being the new normal, and that’s a risky, risky wager.
The Numbers Behind The Puck Luck
Let’s get even deeper into the stats that suggest Boldy might be due for a cooldown. While he did increase his high-danger shots to 84 in 2025-26 from 62 the year before, which *can* explain a jump in scoring, his high-danger shooting percentage also soared to 26.2% from 14.5% in 2024-25. That’s a huge, almost unbelievable, improvement in converting those prime chances. His mid-range shooting percentage also saw a noticeable bump, climbing to 20.3% from 13.8% in the prior season. Here’s the kicker: his expected goals, according to Moneypuck, actually dipped to 30.5 in 2025-26, down from 33.7 the year before. What does all that complicated number crunching mean? It means his surge to 42 goals last campaign very likely had a lot to do with favorable bounces and a hot streak that isn’t sustainable.
So, is Boldy going to completely fall apart? Probably not. You could safely pencil him in for around 30 goals, which is still good. But when you’re taking him at ADP 13.6, you’re putting him in the same conversation as guys like Cole Caufield (17.4), Mikko Rantanen (18.4), Auston Matthews (19.2), Jack Eichel (19.4), and Jason Robertson (22.2). Can you really afford for your top pick to drop from 42 goals to “around 30” when you could have one of those consistent monsters? The risk-reward just isn’t there. When you’re on the clock for your draft, keep those numbers in mind. If Boldy somehow slides significantly below that 13.6 ADP, maybe you consider it, but otherwise, play it safe and let someone else take the puck luck gamble.
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
Originally reported by CBS Sports.
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