Matthew Stafford’s ability to unleash those game-changing “big-time throws” has basically evaporated, plummeting from a robust 7.7% last season to a shockingly low 3.3% in 2026. This isn’t just a statistical blip, it’s a massive shift for the Rams’ entire offensive identity and it’s flashing red right now.
Rams Offense: Explosive But Inefficient
The Rams’ passing game has been pretty middle-of-the-road in 2026, sitting 17th in success rate at 48.4% and 17th in completion rate at 66.1%. Their passer rating is a decent 100.60, good for 12th, but you’d expect more from a Super Bowl contender. The silver lining is they can still go deep. They are sitting 7th in yards per attempt at 8.4 and 8th in explosive pass rate at 18.6%. It’s wild to see them in the top 10 for both pressure rate over expectation at -3.2% and pressure rate at 30.6%, meaning Stafford’s got time in the pocket, and he is getting rid of the ball quickly. It’s an impressive feat to have that quick release and still maintain a high average depth of target, but they are doing it.
We saw them look rough in Week 1 against the San Francisco 49ers, but they bounced back strong against the New York Giants on September 21. It’s early, and that Week 1 performance is definitely skewing the numbers, but some of these trends are already screaming for attention.
Stafford’s Alarming Individual Drop
This is where it gets real concerning. Individually, Matthew Stafford ranks as PFF’s 22nd quarterback in offensive grade. He’s earned a positive grade on only 12.4% of his plays, which puts him 30th out of 41 quarterbacks who have dropped back this season. While his negative plays are a bit better at 8.8% (20th of 41), the alarm bells are ringing louder because of his increased turnover-worthy play rate, which jumped to 4.8% from 3.3% in 2025. That big-time throw rate crash we talked about? It’s paired with a nightmare big-time throw to turnover-worthy ratio of 0.67, a steep fall from 2.23 just last year.
Looking at his passes by depth, the deep ball is where the real trouble is brewing: Stafford is 3/7 for 114 yards on attempts 20+ yards, with *zero* touchdowns and *two* interceptions. He’s got two big-time throws there, but also two turnover-worthy plays. Compare that to 10-19 yard passes, where he’s 10/16 for 184 yards, three touchdowns, and no interceptions. The short stuff (0-9 yards) is 19/24 for 144 yards and one score, also clean on turnovers. The long ball is costing them.
The Rams are staring down a brutal three-week stretch against the Denver Broncos, Philadelphia Eagles, and Buffalo Bills. The Broncos and Eagles defenses are no joke, and they will need Stafford to outscore the Bills in Week 5. They gotta figure out these deep ball struggles and clean up the turnover-worthy plays fast. We’ll be watching these metrics closely to see if they can turn this around.
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
Originally reported by Turf Show Times.
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