If Aaron Donald comes out of retirement for the Los Angeles Rams, the team’s Super Bowl odds jump over 3 percent and their win projection goes up by 0.6 games. That’s a huge boost, right? But here’s the twist nobody’s ready for: Myles Garrett’s chances at back-to-back 20-sack seasons, and his overall sack projection, would actually take a hit.
The Numbers Don’t Lie on Garrett’s Sack Projections
Cynthia Frelund, the NFL Network’s data science analyst, dropped a video this week, and her model is throwing some serious shade on the idea that Donald’s presence automatically skyrockets Garrett’s individual stats. The numbers are wild:
* Wins: 11.6 without Donald, 12.2 with.
* Super Bowl probability: 12% without, 15.2% with.
* Garrett leads NFL in sacks: 25% without, 23% with.
* Garrett getting 20+ sacks: 4% without, 2.5% with.
* Garrett’s sack projection: 17.5 without, 15 with.
Last year, Garrett racked up a ridiculous 23 sacks. But Frelund’s model says bringing back another all-time great could literally shave 2.5 sacks off that projection! This isn’t just a minor dip, it’s a significant swing for a guy who just delivered a monster season.
Is There Such a Thing as Too Much Pass Rush Talent?
Think about it: Garrett has never had a teammate on the Browns hit double-digit sacks, let alone close to it. Now he’s walking into a Rams defense that’s already stacked. You’ve got Byron Young, who hauled in 12.5 sacks in 2025. Then there’s Kobie Turner, who dropped 9 sacks as a rookie and averages 8 per season. Even Braden Fiske snagged 8.5 sacks as a rookie. Any one of these dudes could be the most productive pass rusher Garrett’s ever played alongside.
On one hand, Donald coming back could draw double-teams away from Garrett, making his path to the QB clearer. That’s the old-school thinking, right? But Frelund’s model suggests the opposite: another elite rusher, especially one like Donald who’s got a quicker path to the QB, might just get there first. A lot of sacks come against weaker offensive lines and quarterbacks. In Cleveland, Garrett was often the one taking advantage. In LA, with this kind of talent, it gets a lot harder for one guy to eat everything. It’s a real conundrum!
So, as the Rams gear up for the season, this isn’t just about whether Donald puts on the pads again. It’s about a fascinating dynamic for their defense. Can Garrett still chase that historic 20-sack mark, especially when Frelund points out there have only been 13 such seasons in history (like Reggie White’s 21 and 18, or Deacon Jones’ 21.5 and 22 in 14-game seasons)? Or will Donald’s sheer presence, ironically, make it tougher for Garrett to stand out individually? We’re all gonna be watching how this plays out on the field this season, wondering if too much talent really can be… well, too much for one player’s stat sheet.
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
Originally reported by Turf Show Times.
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