A new study estimates a staggering 74.5% of former NFL players who died between 2008 and 2023 had chronic traumatic encephalopathy, or CTE. Yeah, you read that right. We’re talking about nearly three out of four guys who played the game we love, gone, with this horrible brain disease. This isn’t just a number, it’s a gut punch to anyone who cares about player safety.
The Numbers Keep Getting Worse
Think about that. Back in August, another study, also published by many of these same researchers, came out in the British Medical Journal. That one said roughly 24.5% , about 1 in 4 , of former players who died from 2016 to 2021 had CTE. That was already a “sobering reminder that football carries real risks,” as the NFL Players Association put it. And now? This new study in JAMA Network Open just dropped with numbers that are *way* more alarming. We’re talking a jump from 1 in 4 to nearly 3 in 4. That’s not a slight uptick, that’s a massive red flag waving in everyone’s face. This degenerative brain disease, linked to repeated hits to the head, involves a buildup of abnormal proteins that wreck brain tissue. The problem isn’t just present, it’s apparently far more widespread than we even thought a few months ago.
Unpacking the Shocking Truth About Brain Donations
Now, the researchers behind this latest study know what we all suspect: most of what we know about CTE comes from brains voluntarily donated for autopsy. And, let’s be real, families are probably more likely to donate a brain if they suspect the player had CTE symptoms, right? That’s called selection bias, and it totally inflates the numbers if you just look at the donors. So, what did this JAMA study do? They set out to adjust for that bias and give us a clearer picture. Their study included 2,362 former NFL players, with 396 of them being brain donors. Without adjusting, a mind-boggling 93.5% of those brain donors who were evaluated had CTE. Ninety-three-point-five percent! That’s basically *everyone* who donated their brain and got evaluated. But even after they crunched the numbers and adjusted for selection bias, their estimated rate of CTE occurrence still came out at that strikingly high 74.5%. And get this: even their “conservative lower-bound analysis” , basically, their absolute lowest, most cautious estimate , put the bias-adjusted prevalence of CTE at death at 63.7%. Seriously, over 60% in the *most conservative* estimate. All these players, by the way, played at least one regular or postseason game. They pulled data from a brain bank and National Death Index records to do this, using a complex “selection ratio” based on families noticing cognitive symptoms. It really shows how pervasive this issue could be, even after accounting for the expected skew in donations.
What’s Next for the Game We Love?
The study also used a “dementia cause of death” variable as a proxy for CTE. Yeah, it’s not perfect, they admitted there’s anticipated measurement error because not everyone with cognitive symptoms dies from a dementia-related cause. But they still worked to compensate for that, using prior population-level estimates of mild cognitive impairment and dementia in former NFL players over 50 years old to make their “clear cognitive symptoms” definition robust. This is serious stuff, people. The NFLPA called the previous findings a “sobering reminder.” This new 74.5% estimate isn’t just sobering, it’s a flashing red siren. The game is incredible, the athletes are unbelievable, but these numbers force us to confront the real, devastating risks players are facing. What does this mean for the future of football? We’re gonna have to wait and see, but these findings just cranked up the pressure on the league and everyone involved to figure out how to make this game safer for the guys putting their bodies on the line every single Sunday.
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
Originally reported by Yahoo Sports.
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