Tampa Bay is on the verge of an absolute sweep tonight, leading the New York Yankees 2-0 in the American League Division Series and looking to close it out in Game 3. The Rays have been straight-up dominant, and now they’re just one win away from ending New York’s playoff run right here, right now.
Rays Have Been Rolling, Now It’s Nick Martinez’s Turn To Shut It Down
The Rays have looked unstoppable so far, taking both games at Tropicana Field. Game 1 was a clinic, with Drew Rasmussen pitching a 1-0 gem that just shut down the Yankees offense. Then in Game 2, Tampa Bay cranked it up a notch, securing a 5-2 victory behind Freddy Peralta. Now, they are heading into Yankee Stadium with a commanding 2-0 series lead, and the pressure is all on New York.
For Game 3, the Rays are set to send right-hander Nick Martinez to the mound. Martinez has had a stellar year, coming in with a 15-6 record and a sharp 3.10 ERA. He’s clearly been a force for Tampa Bay. The Yankees, fighting for their playoff lives, will counter with left-hander Max Fried, who holds a 5-5 record and a 2.80 ERA. First pitch from New York is locked in for 8 p.m. ET.
The Model Says The Over Is Coming, And These Hitters Are Going Off
Even with the Rays up big, the Yankees are still the -164 favorite on the money line for Game 3, while the Rays sit at +140. The over/under is set at 7 runs. But here’s where it gets interesting: SportsLine’s proven computer model, which has simulated this matchup 10,000 times, is all about the Over for this game. This model is on a 31-25 run on top-rated MLB money-line picks in the divisional round of the 2026 MLB playoffs, earning over $900 for $100 players.
The model projects a massive 8.1 combined runs tonight, with the Over hitting 54% of the time. Get this, the Over even hit in the last matchup between these two teams, and in three of the last four games for the Yankees. It’s not just about total runs either. The model is projecting big nights for some key hitters: Yandy Diaz and Junior Caminero for the Rays are both projected for 1.5 total bases or more. For the Yankees, Ben Rice and Luis Garcia are also tabbed to hit 1.5 total bases or more.
This is it. The Rays have a chance to complete the sweep tonight and send the Yankees packing. New York has to find a way to break through, or their season is over. You do not want to miss a single pitch of this one.
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
Originally reported by CBS Sports.
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