Man, college football Week 4 is already throwing curveballs, especially with No. 21 Florida opening as just a 2.5-point home favorite over No. 4 Ole Miss. You’d think Vegas would know better, right? Caesars Sports immediately bumped the Gators to -3, then -3.5, but guess what, the public is absolutely having none of it, piling bets on those fourth-ranked Rebels. Joey Feazel, head of football trading at Caesars Sports, straight up called it “reverse action,” and it shows everyone’s gut feeling on this matchup is totally against the line movement.
Rebels vs. Gators: What’s Really Going Down?
Let’s break down why everyone’s riding with Ole Miss, even with the line swinging toward Florida. Last week, Ole Miss pulled off a huge home win, beating LSU 32-24 as 3-point underdogs. Yeah, they blew a 24-7 first-half lead, but they *held on*. Meanwhile, Florida scraped by Auburn 44-39 as a 2.5-point favorite, giving away most of a 17-point lead in the fourth quarter. If you ask me, Ole Miss’s win was definitely more impressive. So why the Gators as favorites? It’s that home field advantage for Florida, plus Ole Miss running back Kewan Lacey is questionable with a shoulder injury. Those two things convinced Caesars to open Florida at -2.5. But the line’s now Gators -3.5 (-102) for the 3:30 p.m. ET Saturday kick, despite all that public money pouring in on Ole Miss. Both teams are 3-0 straight up and 2-1 against the spread, so this game is gonna be a barn burner, and the betting world is clearly split.
Indiana’s Undefeated Ride, But Can They Cover?
Over in the Big Ten, we’ve got a battle of unbeatens on Friday night, but let’s be real, it’s not looking like much of a battle. No. 5 Indiana, our defending national champion, is a massive 21-point home favorite against Northwestern. That line actually came down from a -22.5 opener, and you gotta wonder why. Indiana is 3-0 straight up, but get this, they are 0-3 against the spread this season! The defending champs can’t cover a spread to save their lives! Last year, they were 16-0 SU and 10-6 ATS, even covering in three of their four College Football Playoff victories. So what’s up this season? Feazel says it’s “mostly Indiana action” because people love the Hoosiers and Coach Curt Cignetti. The public isn’t bailing on a team that hasn’t lost since the 2024-25 CFP first round. The real hope for this 8 p.m. ET FOX game is that Northwestern can just hang tough and keep it a low-scoring affair.
And if you thought that was a mismatch, get ready for Saturday’s Big Noon Kickoff on FOX. Ohio State is an absolutely ridiculous 26.5-point home favorite over Illinois. That’s down from -27.5, but still, almost four touchdowns! At DraftKings Sportsbook, it’s all Buckeyes with 82% of spread bets and 77% of spread money. Looks like everyone expects a blowout.
So, buckle up, college football fans. This weekend is packed with action. Can the public prove Vegas wrong on Ole Miss? Will Indiana finally cover a spread? And how big will Ohio State win? We’re about to find out!
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
Originally reported by Fox Sports.
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