The Green Bay Packers defense has been the shocker of the season’s first two weeks, showing an impressive side of the ball that’s pretty unusual for their fans. Now, in Week 3, they are staring down an Atlanta Falcons offense that hasn’t even sniffed the red zone all season. But here’s the kicker: the Falcons finally get their preferred starting quarterback, Michael Penix, back on the field after an injury and a super disappointing 2025 season. This game hinges on one huge question for Jonathan Gannon’s defense.
Penix’s Kryptonite is Hiding in Plain Sight
Penix’s numbers against different coverages are wild, like night and day. Among 48 qualified quarterbacks since 2024, he ranks fourth in expected points added (EPA) per play when facing zone coverage. That’s elite! But flip the script to man coverage, and he’s cratered at 47th. Forty-seventh! What’s up with that? A big part of his zone success comes from throwing short, ranking 12th in EPA per play on throws under 10 yards. But when he tries intermediate throws, he drops to 42nd, and on deep passes, he’s way down at 40th. The guy thrives on flat routes, comebacks, and hitches. None of those are exactly man-beaters, and they certainly aren’t designed for explosive plays against tight coverage. It screams: challenge this dude! Do not let him get comfortable with easy completions.
Gannon’s Cards Showed the Blueprint, So Will He Use It?
Here’s the rub: Jonathan Gannon doesn’t typically run a ton of man coverage. His Green Bay defense is currently 27th in man rate, which totally mirrors his Arizona unit from 2023 to 2025. So, is he going to stick to his guns or actually follow the blueprint the numbers are screaming? There’s some hope. Last year, when Gannon’s Cardinals faced the Falcons, he cranked up the man coverage to a 30.6% clip. That was the second-highest rate for Arizona in 2025, a massive jump from their 19.5% average in their other 16 games. Sure, it was Kirk Cousins under center, not Penix, but the strategy proved effective.
Drake London Struggles When You Get Physical
And it’s not just about the quarterback. Utilizing more man coverage, plus a heavier dose of single-high safety, could also slam the brakes on Atlanta’s top pass catcher, Drake London. He’s brilliant, no doubt, but London ranks 32nd in yards per route run (Y/RR) against man coverage since 2022, compared to 19th against zone. He also drops to 25th against single-high coverage versus 9th against two-high. Like Penix, he excels on short routes (18th in Y/RR) but struggles on intermediate (35th) and deep routes (60th). The guy thrives on slants, comebacks, and out routes.
Teams might hesitate to challenge London because of his size, but the data says Gannon’s defense absolutely should. Don’t sit back and let him catch easy underneath passes and rack up extra yards. Be brave, compete, and make him earn contested catches. Gannon’s Cardinals played one deep safety at a season-high 55.6% rate against the Falcons last year, compared to just 43% the rest of the season. The result? London was held to a measly three catches on eight targets for just 27 yards. Three of those targets were contested, and he caught zero. That single-high strategy closes down the middle of the field where London likes to operate.
This Week 3 matchup is all about Gannon’s conviction. Does he dare Penix to beat him with those glaring man coverage weaknesses, or does he play it safe? That decision could define the Packers’ defensive momentum this season.
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
Originally reported by Yahoo Sports.
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