Paul Skenes, the reigning National League Cy Young winner, isn’t being his usual dominant self on the mound in 2026, and it’s absolutely costing the Pirates. This squad is trying to make the playoffs for the first time in over a decade, and this rough patch from their ace is hitting at the worst possible moment.
The Recent Pitching Nightmare
Things have been especially rough for Skenes lately, man. Just Wednesday, he coughed up three runs in five innings during a loss to the Brewers, walking four batters over that span. And get this: in his two starts before that, Skenes gave up a combined 13 runs over just 14 ⅓ innings, with another ten walks. That kind of lack of control is totally uncharacteristic for him, and it’s playing a central role in what we’re seeing. Skenes himself admitted it after Wednesday’s start, saying, “You can’t walk guys. Probably tried to be a little too perfect at times, then you put yourself in those positions, kind of open yourself up to a hit. It’s just not where you need to be, not where you want to be.” That’s straight talk, and it tells you everything.
What the Numbers Are Really Saying
It’s tempting to panic, but “relative struggles” is actually a key phrase here. Skenes hasn’t been straight-up bad in a vacuum this season. He’s got a 3.96 ERA, which comes out to a 109 ERA+, meaning his park-adjusted ERA is 9 percent better than the league average. His 4.50 K/BB ratio even ranks fourth among NL qualifiers. Plus, his FIP, which is an expected ERA that strips away defense and luck, sits at 2.86. That suggests he’s been pretty unlucky this season, especially with an elevated BABIP of .309.
But hold up, it’s not simply bad luck. Skenes has shed some velocity on both his fastball and his sinker. And Stuff+ data shows the traits of his fastball, sinker, slider, and changeup have actually gotten significantly worse. While the overall control issues aren’t as severe as in his most recent starts, his walks as a percentage of batters faced have ticked up from 5.7 percent in 2025 to 6.8 percent this season. He’s also working in the zone less often, and that’s not being offset by more swings outside the zone. Even his mechanics are a bit off, with his arm slot creeping up three degrees and his landing spot slightly deeper on all his pitches. It could be fatigue, discomfort, or honestly, just one of those random baseball things that happen over a long season.
Ill-Timed Pain for the Pirates
This whole situation is incredibly ill-timed for the Pirates. Remember, Skenes boasted an insane 1.96 ERA over his first two seasons and 55 starts in the big leagues. This guy was untouchable! His current struggles are happening exactly when the team needs him most, as they try to break that decade-plus playoff drought. The source article hints that the Pirates haven’t “otherwise behaved seriously and surround Skenes with” enough support. If they want to make a real run, they need their Cy Young ace to find himself, and fast. Every pitch feels like it could swing their season right now.
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
Originally reported by CBS Sports.
Leave a Reply